俄乌冲突下北极地区安全面临的新形势及对中国的影响

The New Security Situation of the Arctic Region under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Impact on China

在俄乌冲突爆发前,北极已经呈现出“再军事化”愈演愈烈、北极东西方维持微妙平衡和域外国家大规模介入北极事务的态势。俄乌冲突发生后,北极地区受其影响,形势发生了多边合作机制破裂、北欧国家集体“北约化”打破北极东西方平衡、域外国家将在北极事务中发挥更大作用、美国的北极影响力迅速扩大等新问题。俄乌冲突也对中国在北极的活动造成了影响。美国将中国渲染成地缘政治威胁,歪曲中国北极形象,并与其他西方国家在北极事务中孤立俄罗斯,迫使中国站队,然而,北极合作机制的重建、北极东西平衡关系的修复,使得俄罗斯对华依赖加强,间接赋予了中国扩大参与北极事务的机遇。

The security situation in the Arctic region is complex.Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,it had already shown the characteristics of intensifying"remilitarization",delicate balance between the east and west of the Arctic,and large-scale intervention from countries outside the region.After the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the situation in the Arctic region was affected by many changes,including the lack of multilateral cooperation mechanisms,the collective"NATOization"of the Nordic countries,and countries outside the region,especially the US play a greater role in Arctic affairs.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had an impact on China's activities in the Arctic.The US exaggerated China as a geopolitical threat,worsening China's image in the Arctic region.Simultaneously,the US and the West have isolated Russia in Arctic affairs,forcing China to choose its side.However,the reconstruction of the Arctic cooperation mechanism and the restored balance between the east and west in the Arctic have strengthened Russia's dependence on China and indirectly given China opportunities to expand its participation in Arctic affairs.In the future,China should uphold the concepts of openness,win-win and sustainability,continue to strengthen cooperation with Arctic countries,avoid siding with the Arctic countries and tying up with Russia,adhere to bottom-line thinking,and make security precautions and good preparation for emergencies,and safeguarding China's rights and interests in the Arctic region.