阿富汗塔利班2.0时代的内外形势

The Internal and External Situation of the Afghanistan Taliban in the 2.0 Era

阿富汗塔利班重新执政以来,坚持以伊斯兰教法治国,初步打造了政教合一的新政权。在阿塔2.0政权治下,阿富汗政局基本稳定,但政权排他性特征较为显著,经济和人道主义危机仍在延续,安全形势出现恶化的发展趋势。尽管阿塔致力于开展“积极外交”,但其外部环境未有明显改善。美欧对阿塔实施“孤立为主、接触为辅”的政策。地区国家形成了初步合作机制,但进一步推进合作面临诸多阻力。巴基斯坦与阿塔的矛盾在上升,伊朗与阿塔“合作中有隐忧”,俄罗斯对阿塔影响力下降,中亚国家对阿塔态度“各有温差”。展望未来,阿塔在内外治理层面依然面临多重挑战,主要表现为:意识形态保守化内核未变,难以应对现代国家治理挑战;领导层在国家内外政策走向上存在分歧;经济上“重安全、轻发展”,长期经济发展规划不明晰;反恐举措难遏恐怖主义势力发展势头;获取国际承认仍需一定时日等。

Since the Afghanistan Taliban returned to power,they have insisted on governing the country in terms of the Islamic law and initially created a theocratic state.Under the Taliban 2.0 regime,Afghanistan's political situation is basically stable,but the exclusive feature of the regime is relatively obvious,the economic and humanitarian crises still continue,and the security situation is deteriorating.Despite Taliban's commitment to"active diplomacy",its external environment has not improved significantly.The US and Europe have implemented a policy of"isolation first and contact second"towards Afghanistan.Neighboring countries have formed a preliminary cooperation mechanism,but the promoting of further cooperation faces many obstacles.The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is on the rise,Iran and Afghanistan"have hidden concerns in their cooperation",Russia's influence is declining,and Central Asian countries have diversified attitudes towards Taliban.Looking into the future,Taliban still faces multiple challenges at the internal and external levels.The core of ideological conservatism has not changed,thereby making it difficult to cope with the challenges of modern national governance.The leadership has disputes on the direction of the country's domestic and foreign policies.In the economic field,"focusing on security and despising development"is still a big problem and its long-term economic development plan is unclear.Moreover,its anti-terrorism measures are hard to curb the development momentum of terrorism and the recognition of international community still need some time.