跨境电商综合试验区与外贸高质量发展——基于双重差分法的实证分析

Cross-Border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone and High-Quality Development ofForeign Trade: Empirical Analysis Based on the Differences in Differences Method

近年来,跨境电商迅速发展,逐渐成为外贸发展的新动能、新业态。基于广东21个已设跨境电商综合试验区地市,选取2005—2020年面板数据,利用双重差分法分析设立跨境电商综合实验区对广东外贸产生的影响,并就跨境电商综合实验区的政策效应进行评价。研究发现,设立跨境电商综合实验区显著促进广东外贸发展,政策效应明显;对外开放程度、工业化水平、产业结构升级均有助于广东外贸显著增长,是跨境电商综合试验区推动外贸高质量发展的重要路径;异质性分析表明,跨境电商综合实验区对低外贸依存度样本组出口贸易的政策促进效应更显著,高外贸依存度样本组的贸易政策效应则不显著。最后,针对研究结论提出行之有效的对策建议。

In recent years,cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly and gradually become a new driving force and new business form for foreign trade development.Based on the panel data of the 21 cities in Guangdong that have set up comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones from 2005 to 2020,the impact of the establishment of comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones on Guangdong’s foreign trade was analyzed by using the differential differential method,and the policy effect of comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones was evaluated.The findings are as follows.The establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone significantly promotes the development of foreign trade in Guangdong,and the policy effect is obvious.The degree of opening to the outside world,the level of industrialization,and the upgrading of industrial structure all contribute to the significant growth of Guangdong’s foreign trade,which is an important path to promote the high-quality development of foreign trade in the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the comprehensive experimental area of cross-border e-commerce has a more significant policy promotion effect on the export trade of the sample group with low foreign trade dependence,while the trade policy effect of the sample group with high foreign trade dependence is not significant.Finally,effective countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the research conclusions.