近60年黑龙江省极端降水事件分布特征

Distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Heilongjiang Province in recent 60 years

文中采用泰森多边形、反距离权重、Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析法分析黑龙江省1960—2021年33个气象站逐日降水数据,系统研究了6个极端降水指数的空间分布特征、时间尺度上的趋势变化、突变性和周期性。结果表明,极端降水指数空间分布变化显著,研究区北部和南部降水量较大、西部地区降水强度较大;在0.05的置信区间内,极端降水事件突变多发生在20世纪60年代和80年代左右,且主周期变化中心为41年前后;人为因素和自然因素极大地影响着极端降水指数的变化,极端降水事件对城市化进程、自然地理因素和大尺度气候因子有一定的指示作用。

In this paper,the daily precipitation data of 33 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed by using Tyson polygon,inverse distance weight,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The spatial distribution characteristics,time scale trend change,mutability and periodicity of 6 extreme precipitation indexes were systematically studied.The results show that the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation index changes significantly,the precipitation in the north and south of the study area is larger,and the precipitation intensity in the western area is larger.In the confidence interval of 0.05,the abrupt changes of extreme precipitation events mostly occurred in the 1960s and 1980s,and the change center of the main cycle was around 41 years.Human and natural factors greatly affect the change of extreme precipitation index,and extreme precipitation events have certain indicative effects on urbanization process,physical geographical factors and large-scale climate factors.