城市轨道交通车站接驳客流组合预测模型

Integrated Prediction Model for Urban Rail Transit Station Feeder Passenger Flow

[目的]接驳设施的合理配套是充分发挥城市轨道交通功能的重要保障,为量化描述城市轨道交通车站的客流来源分布及接驳交通方式分担率,提出一种车站接驳客流组合预测模型。[方法]介绍了国内外客源区划定、车站选择模型、接驳方式选择方面的研究现状。建立接驳客流组合预测模型,即接驳方式选择模型和车站选择模型,二者均采用嵌套式Logit模型,可通过接驳方式选择模型ROOT层(根层)的Logsum实现两种模型的衔接。[结果及结论]接驳方式选择模型输出ROOT层的Logsum可用于表征空间点对的各接驳方式综合竞争力,能够更全面地反映综合成本。车站选择模型利用离散化的手机信令集计数据进行标定,在南京主城区地铁车站的研究实例中,车站选择模型标定的校正伪R 2达到了0.872,说明模型解释效果较好。对比实例研究结果与调查数据可知,所提车站接驳客流组合预测模型对接驳客流的来源分布及所采用的交通方式的定量描述能力较好。

[Objective]The rational coordination of feeder facilities is crucial for maximizing the functionality of urban rail transit.To quantitatively describe the distribution of passenger flows originating from urban rail transit stations and the mode share of feeder transportation,an integrated prediction model for feeder passenger flow is proposed.[Method]The current research status on domestic and international studies related to source region delineation,station selection models,and feeder mode selection is reviewed.The above integrated prediction model is established,consisting of feeder mode selection and station selection models,and both employ a nested Logit model.The Logsum from the ROOT layer of the feeder mode selection model serves as a connector between the two models.[Result&Conclusion]The Logsum output from the ROOT layer of the feeder mode selection model is utilized to characterize the comprehensive competitiveness of various feeder modes for spatial points,offering a more comprehensive reflection of overall costs.The station selection model is calibrated using discretized mobile signaling data,and in the case study of metro stations in the central area of Nanjing,the corrected pseudo-R2 for the calibrated station selection model reached 0.872,indicating a satisfactory explanatory performance.Comparison between the research case results and survey data reveals that the proposed integrated prediction model effectively describes the distribution of feeder passenger flows and quantifies the usage of different feeder modes.