房价变动对家庭消费的影响研究——基于适度负债的调节效应

Research on the Impact of House Price Changes on Household Consumption:Based on the Moderating Effect of Moderate Debts

利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年、2013年、2015年和2017年的数据,基于适度负债视角,构建非平衡面板模型,实证研究了房价变动对家庭消费的影响。研究发现:房价对家庭消费存在显著影响,且二者间的关系呈倒U型。随着房价升高,其对家庭消费的财富效应逐渐转变为挤出效应。而适度负债在房价变动与家庭消费的传导间起调节作用,当家庭利用适度债务杠杆时,房价变动对家庭消费的倒U型曲线拐点处于家庭消费的更高位置,这有利于净资产较高的家庭通过适度负债提高其边际消费倾向。基于此,政府应调控房价回归合理区间,充分发挥财富效应,对住房调控“因城施策”,以遏制房地产市场过度投机,鼓励居民合理利用适度负债,倡导“量入为出”。

Based on a moderate debt perspective,an unbalanced panel model has been constructed for an empirical study on the impact of house price changes on household consumption by using data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2011,2013,2015,and 2017.Research has found that housing prices exert a significant impact on household consumption,with an inverted U-shape shown for the relationship between the two.As housing price rises,its wealth effect on household consumption gradually shifts to a crowding-out effect.Moderate debt plays a moderating role in the transmission between changes in house prices and household consumption.When households make a utilization of the moderate debt leverage,the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve of housing price changes on household consumption remains at a higher position,which is beneficial for households with higher net assets to increase their marginal propensity to consume through moderate debts.Based on this,it is advisable that the government should regulate housing prices to return to a reasonable range,give full play to the wealth effect,and implement city-specific policies to curb excessive speculation in the real estate market,encourage residents to make reasonable use of moderate debts,and advocate for a living mode“within means”.