中国平台经济规模核算及预测

Accounting and Prediction of the Scale of China’s Platform Economy

平台经济是数字经济的重要组成部分,测度平台经济的规模具有十分重要的现实意义。为此,本文结合国内外相关研究,将平台经济从数字经济的概念中剥离出来,对平台经济的生产与产出统计范围进行界定,构造平台经济规模核算框架,对2005—2021年平台经济增加值规模及其占GDP的比重进行统计测度,并通过指数平滑法和灰色预测模型对我国平台经济发展规模进行预测。本文研究结果为了解我国平台经济的发展现状及趋势、理解平台经济产业结构特征提供数据支撑,为把平台经济核算纳入现行国民经济核算体系提供参考建议。

The platform economy is an important component of the digital economy.Measuring the scale of the platform economy is of great practical significance.Therefore,this article combines relevant domestic and foreign research to separate the platform economy from the concept of the digital economy,defines the statistical scope of production and output of the platform economy,constructs a framework for calculating the scale of the platform economy,and statistically calculates the scale of added value of the platform economy and its proportion in GDP from 2005 to 2021.And it further predicts the development scale of China’s platform economy through exponential smoothing method and grey prediction model.The research results of this article provide data support for people to understand the development status and trends of China’s platform economy and understand the industrial structure characteristics of the platform economy,and provide suggestions for incorporating platform economic accounting into the current national account system.