基于区间预测的混合能源预测模型设计与研究

Design and Research of Hybrid Energy Forecasting Model Based on Interval Prediction

近年来,随着太阳能和风能在电力系统中的广泛应用,能够准确预测太阳能和风能对电力系统的电能优化管理策略设计至关重要。旨在开发一种能够用于电力系统能源预测的风能和太阳能新型混合预测系统。通过风力发电与光伏发电的理论仿真模型分析,设计用于短期预测的实质性电力演化战略(SPES)。基于区间预测(PIs)算法,提出混合能源预测模型,实现电力系统的短期和混合能源功率预测。最后,根据实际监测数据,将传统算法与设计的SPES算法进行对比分析,验证结果表明该模型在时效性和预测精准性方面具有显著优势。

In recent years,with the widespread application of solar energy and wind energy in power systems,the ability to accurately predict solar energy and wind energy is crucial to the design of optimal management strategies for power systems.This paper aims to develop a new hybrid wind and solar forecasting system that can be used for power system energy forecasting.Through the analysis of theoretical simulation models of wind power and photovoltaic power generation,a Substantial Power Evolution Strategy(SPES)for short-term forecasting is designed.Based on the Interval Prediction(PIs)algorithm,a mixed energy forecasting model is proposed to realize short-term and mixed energy power forecasting of the power system.Finally,according to the actual monitoring data,the traditional algorithm and the designed SPES algorithm are compared and analyzed to verify that the model has significant advantages in timeliness and prediction accuracy.