考虑源荷不确定性及用户响应行为的电力系统低碳经济调度

Low-carbon Economic Dispatch of Power System Considering Source-load Uncertainties and Users Response Behavior

电力系统是未来实现碳中和目标的重要领域,随着源-荷不确定性的加剧,基于确定性模型的低碳经济调度方法无法准确描述不确定因素对碳排放的影响。针对上述问题,该文首先从系统层面构建考虑不确定性的低碳鲁棒优化模型,利用概率模型对源荷不确定因素进行建模,并采用机会约束对目标满足期望的显著性水平进行描述,通过最大化不确定因素的置信水平得出风险规避策略下的鲁棒调度方案。接着从用户层面构建基于事件驱动的用户低碳响应模型,根据系统层计算结果,通过设定事件触发的碳排放阈值定义碳排放超额事件,并以价格形式引导用户的低碳用能行为。最后通过算例分析,验证所提模型能有效量化评估系统的低碳经济调度不确定性水平,充分发挥用户侧降碳能力,实现源荷双侧低碳目标的协同。

Power system is an important field to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in the future.With the aggravation of source and load uncertainties,the low-carbon economic dispatching method based on the deterministic model cannot accurately describe the impact of uncertain factors on carbon emissions.In view of the above problems,a low-carbon robust optimization model considering uncertainty is constructed at the level of power system,in which,the uncertainties of source and load are modeled using the probability model,and the significance level of the target meeting the expectation is described by chance constraint.The robust dispatching scheme under the risk aversion strategy can be obtained by maximizing the confidence level of the uncertainty.Then,an event-driven low-carbon response model is constructed at the level of power users.According to the calculation results of the level of power system,the excess carbon emission event is defined by setting the carbon emission threshold,and the low-carbon power consumption behavior of users is guided in the form of price.Finally,through the case analysis,the results show that the proposed model can effectively quantify the uncertainty level of the low-carbon economic dispatching results,give full play to the carbon reduction ability of the user side,and realize the coordination of the carbon reduction goals of both sides of the source and load.