情报失误研究回顾与展望

Research on Intelligence Failure:Retrospect and Prospect

[目的/意义]情报失误涉及军事战争、国家安全和商业竞争等领域,会对组织决策产生严重不利影响,了解情报失误研究进展,有助于促进情报失误未来研究。[方法/过程]首先,回顾20世纪40年代至今的情报失误研究发展概况;其次,系统分析情报失误相关研究文献;最后,提出情报失误研究现存不足及未来需重点发力的方向。[结果/结论]研究发现,情报失误研究发展阶段包括萌芽时期、形成时期、发展时期和深化时期,研究内容包括情报失误理论研究(具体包括情报失误概念研究、情报失误致因因素研究、情报失误学科交叉研究)与情报失误案例研究(具体包括二战时期、冷战时期和后冷战时期的案例)。此外,情报失误研究在基础理论、泛化现象和规避策略方面研究不足。

[Purpose/Significance]Intelligence failure(IF)occurs in many fields such as military,national security and commercial competition,which has a serious adverse impact on organizational decision-making.Therefore,understanding the research progress of IF is of great significance to promote the future research of IF.[Method/Process]Firstly,this paper reviewed the development of IF research since 1940s.Secondly,this paper systematically analyzed the relevant literature on IF research.Finally,it put forward the existing deficiencies and the future direction of IF research.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that the development stage of IF research includes the embryonic stage,the formation stage,the development stage,and the deepening stage.The research contents include theoretical research on IF(including the concept of IF,the causes of IF,and the interdisciplinary research of IF)and case studies on IF(including the cases in World WarⅡ,Cold War and post-Cold War periods).In addition,the research of IF is insufficient in basic theory,generalization phenomenon and evasive strategy.