基于MIKE21的洪泽湖溢油事故风险研究

Study on Oil Spill Accidents in Hung-tse Lake Based on MIKE21

为分析金宝航线淮安段建设对洪泽湖敏感目标溢油风险,采用MIKE21建立了洪泽湖二维非稳态模型,并选取两个敏感的溢油风险点,分别对施工期及运营期发生溢油事故时,最不利风向下进行风险预测。结果表明,油膜在扩散时,油膜面积逐渐变大且局部厚度减小;溢油点位1在西风条件下发生溢油事故时,会对洪泽湖银鱼国家级水产种质资源保护区造成影响;溢油点位2发生溢油事故时,点位东侧湖岸吸附大部分油膜。研究为洪泽湖安全管理提供参考依据。

In order to analyze the risk of oil spill brought by construction of the Jinbao Route on the Hung-tse Lake,a two-dimensional unsteady model of the Hung-tse Lake was built with MIKE21,and two sensitive oil spill risk points were selected to predict the risk under the most unfavorable wind condition when oil spill accidents occurred during the construction period and the operation period,respectively.The results showed that the oil film area increases and the local thickness decreases gradually when the oil film diffuses.When spill occurs at oil spill point 1 under westerly wind,it will affect Whitebait National Aquatic Germplasm Resources Conservation Area in the Hung-tse Lake.When spill occurs at oil spill point 2,most of the oil film is absorbed on the lake shore on the east side of the point.This study provides a reference for the safety management of the Hung-tse Lake.