2024年中国经济形势展望与政策建议

Outlook and Policy Advice on China’s Economy in 2024

2023年前三季度中国GDP同比增长5.2%,经济运行稳定恢复,预计完成年初制定的增速目标无忧。展望2024年,全国人口减少、技术“封锁”、能源价格波动、汇率波动、国际政治和经济形势变化等仍将是影响中国经济发展的重要因素。中国宏观经济运行的自然走势将是供给、需求双恢复的格局,并且供给端恢复程度要快于需求端,但仍低于潜在水平。房地产危机风险、地方政府债务风险、外部经济环境等将成为未来影响中国经济稳定发展的潜在风险点。鉴于此,2024年的政策目标仍需以需求端作为主要发力点,同时对供给端的稳定恢复和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持,宏观调控政策以需求供给双扩张的政策取向为主,同时搭配市场环境管理为辅的政策组合。总的看,2024年我国经济面临的机遇大于挑战,有利条件强于不利因素,支撑高质量发展的要素条件不断集聚增多,我们要增强信心和底气。

China’s GDP experienced a year-on-year growth by 5.2%in the first three quarters of 2023,showing a stable recovery of economy and is expected to achieve the growth target set at the beginning of the year without question.Looking forward to 2024,factors like the national population decline,technological“blockade”,energy price fluctuations,exchange rate fluctuations,changes in the international political and economic situation,etc.will continue to be important reasons affecting China’s economic development.The natural trend of China’s macroeconomic operation will be a pattern of recovery of both supply and demand,with the supply side recovering faster than the demand side,but still lower than the potential level.In addition,real estate crisis risks,local government debt risks,and the external economic environment will become potential risks that restrict the stable development of China’s economy in the future.In view of the above,the policy objectives in 2024 should still take the demand side as the main focus,and provide necessary support for the stable recovery of the supply side and the continuous improvement of the market environment.The macro-control policy should orient toward expansion of both demand and supply,supplemented by market environment management.In general,China’s economy in 2024 will face more opportunities than challenges,more favorable conditions than adversary elements,and the elements that support high-quality development will continue to accumulate and increase,therefore,we should enhance our confidence in China’s economy.