郑州市暴雨天气递进式预报预警响应联动工作机制研究

Research on the Working Mechanism of Progressive Forecast and Early Warning Response for Heavy Rainstorm in Zhengzhou

为有效应对暴雨灾害,保障城市安全,郑州市气象局建立了递进式预报预警响应联动工作机制,明确叫应标准、叫应对象和叫应规则,确定了预报预警信息的发布标准、主要内容、发送方式、接收对象和应急联动处置;建立了暴雨天气递进式预报预警服务流程,按照预防、准备、响应、复盘4个环节开展决策气象服务。在预防环节和准备环节,按照“131631”服务模式提供递进式气象服务产品,即(1)提前一周给出高影响天气和风险提示;(2)提前3d预测暴雨天气过程;(3)提前1 d预测精细到县区的暴雨落区;(4)提前6 h预测暴雨演变趋势;(5)提前3 h订正暴雨演变趋势和发布预警信号;(6)提前1 h给出精细到县区的定量降水预报。在响应环节建立健全气象内部响应和与外部门联动工作机制,保证气象服务工作规范有序,部门间的应急响应联动顺畅。在复盘总结环节制定暴雨天气过程的复盘标准,明确预报技术和决策服务复盘总结的重点内容。通过建立暴雨天气个例库和决策经验库,为决策气象服务提供参考依据。

In order to effectively deal with the rainstorms and provide security for the city,Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau has established the working mechanism of progressive forecast and early warning response,which has clarified the call and response standard,call and response objects,call and response rules,and determined the release standard,main contents,sending methods,receiving objects and emergency response of forecast and early warning information.The service process of progressive forecast and early warning of rainstorms has been established,and decision-making meteorological service has been carried out according to four links:prevention,preparation,response and review.The"131631"service model is used to provide progressive meteorological service products in prevention and preparation process.The model is as follows:(1)The warnings of high-impact weather and risk are given a week in advance;(2)To forecast the rainstorm processes 3 days in advance;(3)The rainstorm fall area accurate to the counties is predicted 1 day in advance;(4)To forecast the trend of rainstorm evolution 6 hours in advance;(5)To revise the trend of rainstorm evolution and issue warning signals 3 hours in advance;(6)The precise quantitative precipitation forecast accurate to the counties is given 1 hour in advance.In response process,the working mechanism of meteorological internal response and linkage with external departments has been established and improved,to ensure the meteorological service work is standardized and orderly,and the emergency response interaction between departments is smooth.In review process,the review standard of rainstorm processes is formulated,and the key contents of reviewing the forecast technology and decision-making service are clarified.The rainstorm case database and decision-making experience database are established to provide reference for decision-making meteorological services.