数字技术创新对城市经济韧性的影响研究——来自中国278个地级及以上城市的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Digital Technology Innovation on Urban Economic Resilience:Empirical Evidence from 278 Cities at Prefecture Level and Above in China

当前国际和国内经济形势的不确定性不断增加,能否加快构建有韧性的区域经济格局显得至关重要。根植于数字经济场景中的数字技术创新已成为区域经济韧性提升的重要驱动力。利用2007—2020年全国278个地级及以上城市面板数据实证考察了数字技术创新对城市经济韧性的影响,结果表明,数字技术创新显著提升了城市面对外部冲击的抵抗力、恢复力及持续增长能力,并通过城市产业结构升级、城市全要素生产率提高和城市创新创业活跃度提升间接促进了城市经济韧性的不断提升。进一步研究发现,数字技术创新对城市经济韧性的提升具有显著的空间溢出效应,即静态视角下数字技术创新不仅能够提高本地经济韧性,也有助于邻近城市经济韧性的提升。引入空间滞后项的动态空间杜宾模型显示,数字技术创新对城市经济韧性的直接影响还包括邻近城市经济韧性得到提升后反向作用于本地经济韧性的“空间反馈效应”。此外,对比数字技术创新对城市经济韧性的长期和短期空间溢出效应发现,数字技术创新对城市经济韧性提升的长期效应大于短期效应。该结论为我国经济韧性水平接近的城市普遍具有明显空间集聚现象这一判断提供了一个具有说服力的解释。

The uncertainty factors of the current international and domestic economic situation continue to break through expectations,and it is crucial to accelerate the construction of a resilient regional economic structure,and digital technology innovation rooted in the digital economy scene has become an important driving force for the improvement of regional economic resilience.This paper empirically examines the impact of digital technology innovation on urban economic resilience using panel data of 278 cities at the prefecture level and above from 2007 to 2020.The research results show that digital technology innovation significantly improves the resistance,resilience and sustainable growth ability of cities in the face of external shocks,and indirectly promotes the continuous improvement of urban economic resilience through the upgrading of urban industrial structure,the improvement of urban total factor productivity and the improvement of urban innovation and entrepreneurship activity.Further research finds that digital technology innovation has a significant spatial spillover effect on the improvement of urban economic resilience,that is,from a static perspective,digital technology innovation can not only improve the local economic resilience,but also contribute to the improvement of the economic resilience of neighboring cities.Dfferent from the static spatial Durbin model,which only has long-term effects,the direct effects of digital technology innovation introduced from a dynamic perspective on urban economic resilience also include the"spatial feedback effect"that affects the economic resilience of neighboring cities and then reflects on the local economic resilience.In addition,comparing the long-term and short-term spatial spillover effects of digital technology innovation on urban economic resilience,this paper finds that the long-term effect of digital technology innovation on urban economic resilience is greater than the short-term effect.This conclusion provides a convincing explanation for the obvious spatial agglomeration phenomenon in areas close to the level of urban economic resilience in China.