供应商结构与中小企业债务违约风险——基于供应链收益和分配效应的分析

Supplier Structure and Debt Default Risk of SMEs:Based on the Perspective of Supply Chain Earnings Effect and Allocation Effect

通过参与供应链合作,中小企业竞争力能够得到大幅提升,但规模小、议价力弱的特点也使其对供应链分工高度依赖,对供应商结构变化较为敏感。通过理论分析和建模推演探究供应商结构对中小企业债务违约风险的影响发现,供应商结构变化兼具收益效应和分配效应,两种效应的方向及强弱影响中小企业的最终收益和债务违约风险。利用2013—2021年我国中小上市制造企业样本进行实证检验,研究结果表明:供应商替代率下降、低替代性供应商数量增加或高替代性供应商数量下降均强化供应商结构稳定性。稳定的供应商结构带来的正向收益效应超过负向分配效应,对降低中小企业债务违约风险十分有利。进一步研究显示,较高的定价势力和较低的市场竞争度能强化供应商结构稳定性优势,大幅提升企业盈利、降低收益波动,对降低中小企业债务违约风险更有利。文章丰富了供应链风险管理相关研究,为明晰供应商结构变化的经济后果、完善供应链中小企业违约风险监管提供了理论和实证依据。

By participating in supply chain cooperation,the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)can be significantly enhanced.However,the small scale and weak bargaining power also make SMEs highly dependent on supply chain divisions and especially sensitive to changes in supplier structure.This paper explores the impact of supplier structures on the debt default risk of SMEs through theoretical and analytical analysis.It shows the changes in supplier structure have both an earnings effect and an allocation effect.The direction and strength of the two effects affect the final earnings of SMEs and their debt default risk.Furthermore,the empirical research,based on the sample of listed manufacturing SMEs in China from 2013 to 2021,shows the supplier structure becomes more stable with the decrease in supplier substitution rate,the increase in the number of low-substitution suppliers,or the decrease in the number of highsubstitution suppliers.The positive earnings effect of a stable supplier structure outweighs the negative allocation effect,which is very beneficial for improving the debt default risk of SMEs.Further study shows that higher pricing power and lower market competitiveness can strengthen the advantages of supplier structural stability and thus increase enterprise profitability,reduce income volatility,and significantly reduce the debt default risk of SMEs.This paper has enriched the research on supply chain risk management,and provided theoretical and empirical basis for clarifying the economic consequences of supplier structure changes and improving the supervision of supply chain SMEs'default risk.