基于路段单元的公路地质灾害风险气象预警系统

Meteorological early warning system of geological hazard risk based on road unit along highways

面向山区交通风险管控需求,以公路为承灾体对象的地质灾害风险气象预警研究具有重要意义。以浙江省磐安县方前镇为研究区,考虑道路等级、斜坡单元、边坡类型和边坡稳定性现状4个方面,研究确定公路地质灾害预警单元的划分方法;考虑历史地质灾害的发育规律,将公路边坡分为土质、岩质和土岩混合质边坡3种类型,分别建立不同类型边坡地质灾害易发性评价体系,并通过层次分析法计算各指标权重及分值;在确定各预警单元所辖边坡地质灾害易发性等级的基础上,结合研究区四级气象预警判据建立基于路段单元的公路地质灾害风险气象预警模型,采用Java语言开发预警系统。经与2021年“烟花”台风期新生公路地质灾害点验证发现,预警成功率为100%。研究结果提供了公路地质灾害风险气象预警单元的划分方法和系统研发思路,能够为山区公路地质灾害风险气象预警提供借鉴与参考。

Facing the demand for traffic risk management and control due to geological hazard in mountainous areas,it is of great significance to study the meteorological early warning of geological hazard risk along highways.Taking Fangqian Town in Zhejiang Province as the study area,the division method for highway geological hazard warning units was studied and determined in terms of road class,slope unit,slope material,and slope stability status.Considering the development law of historical geological hazard,the system of different types of slope geological hazard susceptibility was established for three slope types:soil,rock,and soil-rock mixed slopes.The weight and score of each index were calculated by the analytic hierarchy process method.Based on the susceptibility level of each slope relative to each road segment,a meteorological early warning model based on the risk of geological hazards on road sections was established based on the four-level meteorological early warning criteria in the study area,and the early warning system was developed using Java language.It is found that the success rate of early warning is 100%by the verification of the highway geological hazard occurrences induced by Typhoon In-Fa in 2021.The research results provide a modified road unit division method and system development idea of geological hazard threatening highways in mountainous areas.