基于确定性因子模型的区域地面沉降敏感性研究

Research on Sensitivity of Regional Land Subsidence based on Certainty Factors Model

以天津市滨海新区为例,结合确定性因子模型,分析研究区内渗透系数、地下水埋深、压缩层厚度、压缩模量4个诱发因子对地面沉降敏感性的影响,并绘制了地面沉降敏感性区划图.精度检验表明:基于确定性因子模型生成的沉降敏感性综合指数对研究区内已发生的沉降具有较好的“诊断”作用,AUC值达到了0.851 6,从而证明该方法对于区域地面沉降的评价和预测是非常有效的,其分析结果可以广泛应用于地面沉降敏感性区划、灾害预测预警的分析决策当中.

In the case of Tianjin Binhai New area,the influence of four major factors,permeability coefficient,groundwater depth,compressive layer thickness and compressive modulus on the sensitivity of land subsidence was analyzed combined with the certainty factors model.Then,the land subsidence sensitivity zoning map was drawn in this paper.The results validated by accuracy test shows that the susidence sensitivity index generated by this model has a good"diagnostic"effect on land settlement history case in the study area.The AUC is 0.95166 which proves that the model is very effective for the evaluation and prediction of regional land subsidence.The results can be widely used in the land subsidence sensitivity zoning and decision-making of disaster prevention.