全国市场VS区域市场:碳市场有效性的差异、成因及其对策

National Market VS Regional Market:Differences,Causes,and Countermeasures of Carbon Market Effectiveness

对碳市场有效性进行测度、把握碳市场运行效率,有利于进一步推动碳交易机制优化和效率提升。本文以全国碳排放权交易市场及8个区域试点碳市场为研究对象,以2021年7月16日至2023年6月16日碳配额成交均价为样本,运用结构突变检验法与重标极差分析法对各个碳市场整体与阶段运行效率进行测度。研究结果表明:全国碳市场整体运行效率偏低,仅第一阶段达到了弱式有效水平;在区域试点碳市场中北京碳市场达到弱式有效,若考虑结构突变点时,则上海、广东、湖北、深圳和重庆碳市场达到阶段性弱式有效。在此基础上,进一步剖析了全国碳市场有效性较低的影响因素,并有针对性地提出对策建议。

Measuring the effectiveness of the carbon market and grasping the operational efficiency of the carbon market is conducive to further promoting the optimization and efficiency improvement of the carbon trading mechanism.In this paper,the na⁃tional carbon market and eight pilot carbon markets are taken as the research object,and the average transaction price of carbon al⁃lowances from July 16,2021 to June 16,2023 is taken as samples,and the structural mutation test method and R/S analysis method are used to measure the overall and stage operation efficiency of each carbon market.The results show that the overall opera⁃tion efficiency of the national carbon market is low,and only the first stage has reached the weak effective level.In the pilot carbon market,the Beijing carbon market has reached weak efficiency,and if the structural abrupt change point is considered,the Shang⁃hai,Guangdong,Hubei,Shenzhen and Chongqing carbon markets have reached a stage of weak effectiveness.On this basis,the influencing factors of the low efficiency of the national carbon market are further analyzed,and countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.