2023年我国宏观经济运行特点及2024年展望

Characteristics of China's Macroeconomic Performance in 2023 and Prospects for 2024

2023年,我国宏观经济在波动中复苏、曲折中前进,宏观经济运行总体保持回升向好态势。展望未来,消费尚有巨大的增长空间;新兴产业快速发展,新质生产力将催生产业链加快升级,传统产业智能化低碳化融合化改造具有巨大的发展空间;区域创新以重点城市辐射带动,南北差距扩大。也应看到,房地产市场处于深度调整中;新经济与传统经济的融合化、城乡融合发展等有待加强;青年人结构性失业问题较为突出,劳动力供需错配问题明显;政府债务存在明显的结构性问题,债务结构有待优化。必须把坚持高质量发展作为新时代的硬道理,进一步完善市场经济体制改革,注重“增长政策+结构政策+稳定政策”的协调配合;为改善发展预期、释放巨大的消费需求潜能,应重视发挥分配端改革的关键作用;加快现代化产业体系的构建,提升经济内生动能;着力化解房地产调整风险,推动房地产模式加快转型;加快补短板、强弱项,提高经济社会发展的整体协调水平。

In 2023,China's macro-economy is recovering amid fluctuations and twists and turns.The overall macro-economy performance will maintain an upward trend.Looking forward to the future,there is still huge room for growth in consumption.Emerging industries will develop rapidly,and new quality productivity will accelerate the upgrading of the industrial chain.There is huge development space for the intelligent and low-carbon integration transformation of traditional industries.Regional innovation will be driven by the radiation effect of key cities,and the gap between North and South will widen.It should also be noted that the real estate market is in process of deep adjustment.The integration of the new economy with the traditional economy and the integrated development of urban and rural areas need to be strengthened.The structural unemployment problem of young people is more prominent,and the mismatch between labor supply and demand is significant.There are obvious structural problems in government debt,and the structure of the debt needs to be optimized.It is necessary to uphold high-quality development as the unyielding principle of the new era,further improve the reform of the market economic system,and focus on the coordination of"growth policy+structural policy+stabilization policy".In order to improve development expectations and release the huge potential of consumer demand,we should pay attention to the key role of distribution reform.We should speed up the construction of modernized industrial system and enhance the endogenous power of the economy.Efforts should be made to resolve the risks of real estate adjustment and accelerate the transformation of the real estate model.We should tackle areas of weakness to improve the overall coordination of economic and social development.