RCEP下湖南农产品对外贸易潜力测算与合作态势分析

Measurement of Hunan Agricultural Products Foreign Trade Potential and Analysis of Cooperation Situation under RCEP

本文运用时变随机前沿引力模型和影响力指数测算原理,计算出口贸易效率和农产品出口贸易竞争力指数两项指标,借鉴波士顿矩阵分析法判断湖南出口RCEP各国农产品的贸易合作态势。研究显示:湖南果蔬类产品贸易竞争力在RCEP各国中最强,且各国别市场的湖南各类农产品竞争力差异较大,互补性不强;湖南果蔬类和食品加工类产品的出口市场贸易空间巨大,且不同出口国别市场的贸易效率持续提升;RCEP各国居于湖南农产品出口贸易的不同战略位势,形成了差异化的贸易合作态势。

The paper uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the principle of influence index measurement to calculate two indicators:export trade efficiency and agricultural export trade competitiveness index.The paper draws on the Boston Matrix to project the trade cooperation situation of Hunan's agricultural products exported to RCEP countries.The findings show that the trade competitiveness of Hunan's fruits and vegetables is the strongest among the RCEP countries.The competitiveness of Hunan's various agricultural products in the market of different countries varies greatly while the complementarity is not strong.Hunan's fruits and vegetables and food processing products have great potential for trade in the export market.The trade efficiency of the market in different exporting countries continues to improve.The RCEP countries are in the different strategic positions of Hunan's agricultural products export trade and have formed a differentiated trade cooperation situation.