过失犯中结果预见可能性的认定——危险信号认识说之提倡

The Identification of the Possibility of Foreseeing the Result in Negligent Crime——The Promotion of the Theory of Danger Signal Cognition

我国《刑法》第15条以“预见”为中心规定了过失犯罪的规范内容,由此“结果预见可能性”的认定一直以来对于判断行为人是否应承担过失责任具有重要作用。“契机说”为明确预见可能性的推导流程提供了具有可操作性的判断框架,确有可借鉴之处,但在引入信息搜集义务、泛化理解“允许的危险”等方面存在不妥。在维持“契机说”基本思考方式的前提下,可以尝试以事发当时所存在的预示结果发生之危险的危险信号为推导起点,按照“探察行为当时的危险信号→行为人对危险信号是否存在认识或准认识→是否容易联想到因果经过的基本部分,从而肯定对最终结果的预见可能性”的认定框架进行顺次判断。在以同领域一般人为参照的基础上,通过比例原则对推导过程进行适当限制。如此,有助于破除司法实践中部分存在的过失责任的认定“黑箱”,将过失犯的成立限制在适当的范围之内。

Article 15 of China's Criminal Law provides for the regulation of negligence offences with"foresight"as the central element,and the determination of the"likelihood of foreseeing the result"has always played an important role in determining whether the perpetrator should be held liable for negligence.The Japanese"opportunity theory"provides a workable framework for determining the likelihood of foresight,but it is inappropriate to introduce an obligation to gather information and to generalize the understanding of"permissible danger".On the premise of maintaining the basic framework of the""opportunity theory",we can try to take the danger signal that existed at the time of the incident to foretell the danger of the outcome as the starting point for the derivation,according to"1)detecting the danger signal at the time of the act→2)whether the actor had knowledge or quasi-knowledge of the danger signal→3)whether it is easy to associate with the basic part of the causal process,affirming the possibility of foreseeing the final result".The process of derivation is appropriately limited by the principle of proportionality,based on the reference to the general population in the same field.In this way,it will help to break the"black box"of negligence that partially exists in judicial practice and limit the scope of the establishment of negligence offences to an appropriate extent.