中国住房价格变动风险的非对称传染与杠杆调节效应

Asymmetric Contagion and Leveraging Effects of Housing Price Change Risks in China

协调推进稳房价和稳杠杆是新发展阶段稳定宏观经济大盘、增进民生福祉的必然选择。基于时变条件预测分布实现对中国住房价格变动风险的分类评估,并在考察各类住房价格变动风险演化特征与非对称传染关系的基础上,利用MQVAR模型检验不同类型杠杆对中国住房价格上行与下行风险的调节效应。研究发现:各类住房价格变动风险及其溢出效应均具有显著的阶段性差异,一二三线城市住房价格变动风险的总溢出效应在“房住不炒”方针提出后呈明显下降趋势,其中三线城市是住房价格下行风险的主要溢出者和上行风险的主要接受者。杠杆对住房价格变动风险的调节效应存在明显的非对称性和异质性,金融部门和居民部门加杠杆对住房价格上行风险的影响明显强于去杠杆对住房价格下行风险的影响;金融部门、非金融企业和居民部门去杠杆均会导致住房价格下行风险的波动,而稳健推进政府部门去杠杆并不会加剧总体住房价格下行风险。因此,在城镇化加速推进的新时期,房地产市场调控需更加关注住房价格的风险特征,实行有针对性的、差异化的价格监管与杠杆调节政策。

Coordinating the stabilization of housing prices and leverage is an inevitable choice to stabilize the macroeconomy and improve people's well-being in the new development stage.Based on the time-varying conditional forecast distribution,this study realizes the categorical assessment of housing price change risk in China,and on the basis of examining the evolutionary characteristics and asymmetric contagion mechanism of housing price change risks of various types,the study uses the MQVAR model to test the regulating effect of different types of leverage on the upside and downside risks of housing price changes in China.The study finds that there is a significant difference in the stage of various types of housing price change risks and their spillover effects,and the total spillover effects of housing price change risks in first-,second-and third-tier cities show a significant decreasing trend after the"housing without speculation"guideline is put forward,in which the third-tier cities are the main spillovers of the downside risks of housing prices and the main recipients of the upside risks.There is obvious asymmetry and heterogeneity in the moderating effect of leverage on the housing price change risk,with the impact of leveraging by the financial sector and the residential sector on the upside risk of housing prices significantly stronger than the impact of deleveraging on the downside risk of housing prices;deleveraging by the financial sector,non-financial enterprises and the residential sector will lead to fluctuations in the downside risk of housing prices,whereas steadily advancing deleveraging by the government sector will not exacerbate the overall downside risk of housing prices.Therefore,in the new period of accelerated urbanization,real estate market regulation needs to pay more attention to the risk characteristics of housing prices,and build targeted and differentiated price regulation mechanisms and leverage adjustment policies.