海南省旅游社会–生态系统弹性演变及障碍因子分析

The Evolution of Resilience and the Obstacles Facing the Tourism Socio-Ecological System (TSES) in Hainan Province

作为我国旅游发展的先行示范区,旅游业已经成为海南省的支柱产业,旅游活动已经成为海南省社会–生态系统的主要扰动项。为了探索海南省旅游可持续发展路径,有必要分析海南省旅游社会-生态系统的弹性演变趋势与影响因素。基于现有官方公布的统计年鉴与文献资料,通过构建海南省旅游社会–生态系统弹性评价指标体系,并运用熵权法–灰色关联度–TOPSIS综合分析模型和障碍度模型,对2010–2020年度海南省旅游社会–生态系统弹性演变及障碍因子进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2010–2020年间,海南省旅游社会-生态系统弹性呈稳定上升趋势,一直处于中等弹性阶段。其中,社会子系统弹性呈稳定上升趋势,由低等阶段提高到中等阶段;经济子系统弹性呈先上升后下降的趋势,处于中等阶段;生态子系统弹性总体缓慢下降,呈下降–上升–下降–上升趋势,处于中等阶段。(2)3个子系统中,2010–2018年,社会子系统弹性障碍度最大;2019–2020年,生态子系统障碍度最大。(3)指标层弹性障碍因子主要有第三产业增加值占GDP比重等11个,其中社会子系统因子出现的频次最高。因此,海南省旅游社会–生态系统弹性处于不断发展过程中,但仍有较大的提升空间。有效识别障碍因子并及时采取相应措施是提高系统弹性的重要方式。

As a pioneer demonstration area of tourism development in China,tourism has become the pillar industry of Hainan Province,and tourism activities have become the main disturbance impacting the socio-ecological system in Hainan Province.Analyzing the evolutionary trend of resilience and factors influencing the TSES in Hainan Province is crucial for exploring the local sustainable tourism development path.To achieve that,we first built the resilience evaluation index system for TSES in Hainan Province.Using the entropy weight method-gray correlation-TOPSIS comprehensive analysis model,an obstruction degree model was used to analyze the evolution of resilience and the factors influencing TSES between 2010 and 2020.The results indicate that the resilience of TSES in Hainan Province showed a steady upward trend from 2010 to 2020,and it has remained in the medium stage.Among the subsystems,the resilience of the social subsystem increased steadily from the low stage to the medium stage.The resilience of the economic subsystem was in the middle stage,rising at first and then declining.The overall resilience of the ecological subsystem declined slowly,showing a trend of downward-upward-downward-upward,and was in the medium stage.In terms of influencing factors among the three subsystems,the social subsystem had the highest degree of obstruction during 2010-2018,while the ecological subsystem had the greatest degree of obstruction in 2019-2020.For the degrees of obstruction by individual factors,there were 11 major factors,including the proportion of the added value of tertiary industry in GDP,and among them the factors belonging to the social subsystem appeared most frequently.Therefore,the resilience of TSES in Hainan Province is in the process of continuous development,but there is still much room for improvement.For improving the resilience of TSES,it is important to effectively identify the obstacles and take corresponding measures in a timely manner.