古都旅游地韧性评估及障碍因素诊断

Resilience Assessment and the Diagnosis of Obstacles at Ancient Capital Tourism Sites

文章基于韧性理论,利用2009–2022年河南省四大古都旅游地面板数据,构建包含经济韧性、社会韧性、文化韧性、生态韧性的韧性评价指标体系,借助熵权TOPSIS法和障碍度模型测度古都旅游地2009–2022年韧性及障碍因素。结果表明:(1)综合韧性方面:古都旅游地总体韧性建设存在差异,郑州相比之下整体韧性水平最高,韧性测算值达到0.577;洛阳次之,开封和安阳韧性建设水平较低。(2)子系统韧性方面:郑州始终保持在较高水平进行小幅波动;洛阳水平居中,发展态势较为平稳;相比之下,开封与安阳长期处于较低水平,且发展较慢。(3)障碍度因素方面:各系统层指标对古都旅游地韧性障碍度影响变化不同。经济韧性在各系统障碍度中始终处于第一的位置,社会韧性和文化韧性的障碍度差别不大,生态韧性相比之下障碍度最低。阻碍古都旅游地韧性提升的障碍因子基本一致,且每年变化不大。总游客增长率是制约韧性建设的首要障碍因子,障碍度始终较高。

Based on the theory of resilience,this study utilized the panel data of the four major ancient capital tourist sites in Henan Province from 2009 to 2022 to construct a resilience evaluation index system that includes economic resilience,social resilience,cultural resilience,and ecological resilience.Then,with the help of the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method and an obstacle-degree model,the resilience levels of the ancient capital tourist sites in 2009?2022 were measured and the factors that act as obstacles were identified.The findings can be summarized in terms of Comprehensive Resilience,Subsystem Resilience and Factors Acting as Barriers.(1)Comprehensive resilience:This study reveals disparities in the development of overall resilience in ancient city tourist destinations.Zhengzhou emerges as the leader with the highest overall resilience score of 0.577,followed by Luoyang.In contrast,Kaifeng and Anyang exhibit relatively lower levels of resilience development.(2)Subsystem resilience:Zhengzhou consistently maintains a relatively high level of resilience with minor fluctuations,while Luoyang occupies a mid-range position and exhibits a stable developmental trajectory.Conversely,Kaifeng and Anyang have consistently operated at lower resilience levels,and are characterized by slower developmental progress.(3)Factors acting as barriers:Distinct subsystem indicators exert varying degrees of influence as barriers for resilience within the ancient city tourist destinations,referred to as the“barrier degree”.Economic resilience consistently maintains the highest barrier degree among the subsystems,while social resilience and cultural resilience demonstrate relatively similar barrier degrees.In contrast,ecological resilience exhibits the lowest barrier degree.The factors that obstruct the enhancement of resilience in ancient city tourist destinations exhibit remarkable consistency,with minimal annual fluctuations.Notably,the total tourist growth rate stands out as the primary impediment that constrains resilience development,and it consistently demonstrates a high barrier degree.