地震多发区资源环境承载力评价——以泸定地震为例

Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Assessment in Earthquake-prone Area—Taking the Luding Earthquake Disaster as an Example

地震是全球面临的主要自然灾害威胁之一,每年直接造成数十亿美元的经济损失和大量人员伤亡。研究地震多发区的环境和资源承载能力,是区域抗震救灾和灾后重建的迫切需要。本研究以中国四川省甘孜藏族自治州(简称甘孜州)为研究对象,重点研究2022年甘孜州泸定6.8级地震的影响,建立了地震多发区资源环境承载力评价体系。研究从生态、社会经济、地质等方面选取23个指标,采用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,采用与理想解相似的排序偏好加权法,计算了各县市区资源环境承载力的相对排序。在此基础上,对甘孜州灾后重建战略进行了评价和分析。结果表明,各行政区域的资源环境承载力存在区域差异:受社会经济和生态地质环境的共同影响,甘孜州东南部的资源承载力普遍高于西北部。本研究为地震多发区提供了承载力评估数据和支撑方法。

Earthquakes are one of the major natural disaster threats worldwide and directly cause substantial economic losses and many casualties every year.Research on the resource and environmental carrying capacity in earthquake-prone areas is urgently required for regional earthquake relief efforts and post-disaster reconstruction.This study considered Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture(Ganzi Prefecture)in Sichuan Province,China,focusing on the impact of the Luding 6.8 Magnitude Earthquake in Ganzi Prefecture in 2022.An evaluation system for the resource and environmental carrying capacity of earthquake-prone areas was established.A total of 23 indicators were selected that cover ecological,social economical,and geological aspects,and the weight of each index was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process.The relative ranking of the resource and environmental carrying capacities of each county and city were calculated using the weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS).Consequently,the post-disaster reconstruction strategy of Ganzi Prefecture was evaluated and analyzed.The results show that the resource and environmental carrying capacities of each administrative area differ regionally.Evidence shows that the resource and environmental carrying capacity in southeastern Ganzi Prefecture is generally higher than in the northwest,owing to the joint influence of the social economy and ecological and geological environment.This study provides carrying capacity assessment data and support methods for earthquake-prone areas.