基于AHP-CRITIC法的食品安全评价性抽检分配模型研究

Research on an allocation model for food safety evaluation sampling based on the AHP-CRITIC method

目的建立一个科学合理的食品安全评价性抽检样品量估算及分配模型。方法运用统计学方法估算评价性抽检样品总量,采用文献分析法和德尔菲法筛选多个因素建立样品量分配指标体系,基于层次分析法和CRITIC法为各指标赋予组合权重,并根据指标组合权重对样品量进行分配。结果基于X省食品安全评价性抽检不合格率确定X省的食品安全评价性抽检样品总量为7800份;构建的评价性抽检样品量分配指标体系涵盖食品品种、检测地区2个方面,包含抽检不合格率、膳食结构、食品安全事件、关注度、食品消费量、消费支出、常住人口等共8个指标,依据计算所得的指标组合权重获得X省评价性抽检中各地级市的各类食品的样品分配量。结论构建的食品安全评价性抽检样品量分配模型能依据各地区的食品安全状况更客观、合理地分配样品量,可为食品安全评价性抽检工作提供参考。

Objective The aim of this study was to establish a scientific and reasonable estimation and allocation model for food safety evaluation.Methods A statistical method was used to estimate the total number of samples for evaluative sampling,a sample size allocation index system was established based on an analysis of the literature,the Delphi method was used to screen multiple factors,and a combination weight was assigned to each index based on the analytic hierarchy process and CRITIC method.Results Based on the estimated failure rate of food safety evaluation sampling in Province X,the total number of food safety evaluation samples in Province X was determined to be 7800.The evaluation sampling size allocation index system covered two aspects of food varieties and testing areas and included the following eight indicators:sampling failure rate,dietary structure,the number of food safety incidents,attention,food consumption,consumption expenditure,and resident population.The allocation of samples for each food category in each prefecturelevel city in the evaluative sampling test in Province X was obtained based on the weights of the calculated indicator combinations.Conclusion The sample size allocation model can be used to allocate the sample size in a more objective and reasonable manner according to the food safety situation in each region and can be used as a reference for food safety evaluation sampling.