三线城市韧性水平的时空演化及障碍因子分析

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Obstacle Factors of the Resilience Level in Third-Tier Cities

三线城市作为全国经济发展的中坚力量,其韧性水平的发展对于全国的韧性水平发展有着至关重要的作用。为厘清三线城市韧性水平的发展规律,从经济、社会、生态、基础设施4个维度构建城市韧性指标评价体系。利用熵权法评估2014年、2017年、2020年70个三线城市的韧性水平和各城市的时空演化特征;利用障碍度模型,诊断影响三线城市韧性水平发展的障碍因子。结果表明:70个三线城市韧性水平整体提升,但城市间的韧性水平差距较大;7个地理分区中华东地区韧性水平发展最为迅速;经济韧性、社会韧性和基础设施韧性是制约三线城市韧性水平发展的关键,其中工业增加值占GDP比重、人口增长率、登记失业人员占比是主要障碍因子。三线城市应继续加强城市经济建设、提高社会韧性发展、优化基础设施结构,提升三线城市韧性水平。

Third-tier cities are the backbones of national economic development,and the development of their resilience level plays a crucial role in the development of the resilience level in the country.To clarify the development law of the resilience level in third-tier cities,a city resilience index evaluation system is constructed from four the dimensions of economy,society,ecology and infrastructure.The entropy weight method is used to evaluate the resilience level of 70 third-tier cities in 2014,2017 and 2020 and their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,and the obstacle degree model is used to diagnose obstacle factors that affect the development of the resilience level in third-tier cities.The results show that the resilience level of 70 third-tier cities comprehensively improved,but there was a significant gap in the resilience level among cities,that the resilience level of the East China region developed most rapidly among seven geographical zones,and that economic resilience,social resilience and infrastructure resilience were key factors that constrained the development of the resilience level in third-tier cities,among which the proportion of industrial added value in GDP,population growth rate and the proportion of registered unemployed persons were main obstacle factors.Third-tier cities should continue to strengthen urban economic construction,improve social resilience development,optimize infrastructure structures,and enhance the resilience level of third-tier cities.