承德县国光苹果始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型

Correlation Analysis and Prediction Model between Initial Flowering Period of Guoguang Apples and Meteorological Factors in Chengde County

为准确做好承德县国光苹果始花期预测、发布花期风险预警,尽可能减轻花期灾害对苹果生产造成的不利影响,利用2010—2023年承德县国光苹果生育状况观测资料和同期地面气象观测数据,统计分析始花期与各气象因子之间的关系,结果表明:国光苹果始花期与1月上旬气温、3月下旬气温、3月下旬0 cm地温、浅层地温和4月上中旬地温、稳定通过≥10℃的初日、积温显著相关。挑选显著因子应用逐步回归方法建立预报模型,回代检验中始花期预报值与实际值相差0~2 d的准确率达83%,2022—2023年始花期预报值与实际值相差分别为3 d和1 d,所建立的预报模型可用于承德县国光苹果始花期的预报。

In order to accurately predict the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County,issue flowering risk warnings,and minimize the adverse effects of flowering disasters on apple production,the relationship between the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples and various meteorological factors was statistically analyzed using observation data on the growth status of Guoguang apples in Chengde County from 2010 to 2023 and ground meteorological observation data during the same period.The results showed that the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples was related to the temperature in early January There is a significant correlation between the temperature in late March,the 0cm ground temperature in late March,the shallow ground temperature,and the ground temperature in early and mid April,as well as the initial and accumulated temperatures that pass steadily through ≥ 10 ℃.Selecting significant factors and applying stepwise regression method to establish a prediction model,the accuracy of the 0~2 day difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period in the backpropagation test reached 83%.The difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period from 2022 to 2023 was 3 days and 1day,respectively.The established prediction model can be used for predicting the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County.