绍兴市人口生育率现状及对策研究

Research on the Current Situation and Countermeasures of Population Fertility Rate in Shaoxing City

生育率是反映妇女生育强度的重要指标,它是影响人口增长速度的核心因素,同时也是制定人口计划和进行人口预测的重要指标。从绍兴人口发展形势较为严峻的实际出发,旨在厘清当前绍兴市人口出生数及自然增长率持续降低、总和生育率下降明显、生育二孩及三孩比例不高等主要原因,并分析持续低生育率带来的对城市后续发展支撑不足、产业结构优化调整不利、养老负担日益突出等不利影响,针对性地提出倡导新型婚育观、转变年轻一代“不想生育”观念,切实降低婚育成本、消除育龄家庭“不敢生育”顾虑,打造宜居宜业环境、提高年轻人留绍归属感等对策建议,为提升绍兴人口生育率,发挥人口对绍兴经济社会发展的动能作用贡献力量。

Fertility rate is an important indicator reflecting women’s fertility intensity,which is the core factor affecting the population growth rate,and is also an important indicator for formulating population planning and population forecasting.Based on the fact that the population development situation in Shaoxing is relatively severe,this paper aims to clarify the main reasons for the continuous decline in the number of births and natural growth rate of the population in Shaoxing,the obvious decline in the total fertility rate,and the low proportion of second and third children,and analyze the adverse effects of the continuous low fertility rate on the city’s subsequent development,such as insufficient support for the city’s subsequent development,unfavorable optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure,and increasingly prominent pension burden.This paper also proposes some pertinent countermeasures,including:advocating a new concept of marriage and childbearing in a targeted manner so as to change the concept of“not wanting to have children”among the younger generation;effectively reduce the cost of marriage and childbirth so as to eliminate the concern of families of childbearing age who“dare not have children”,and create a livable and workable environment so as to improve the sense of belonging of young people to stay in Shaoxing.In this way,it is hoped to improve the fertility rate of Shaoxing’s population and give full play to the kinetic role of population in Shaoxing’s economic and social development.