贵州省风、光新能源平价上网条件下发展规模及技术经济研究

Research on the Development Scale and Technical Economy of Guizhou Province's Wind and Light New Energy under the Condition of Affordable Grid Access

随着贵州新能源产业实现了大规模的发展,截至2022年,贵州在南方五省区内新能源装机规模最大、占比最高,风电装机592万千瓦、光伏装机1420万千瓦。根据2022年底《贵州省电力行业报表》统计:2021~2022年新增风电装机~11.5万kW,光伏新增装机~359万kW,仍有大部分未实现投运建设,所以在诸多外部条件的影响下,贵州省新能源发展速度及规模在“十四五”及中长期是否能达到预期,需要深入研究。本文针对贵州省风、光资源进行研究,并预估风电和光伏项目建设成本的单位造价区间,再通过对投资的财务分析建立基本规模目下的资本金IRR速查表模型,以便往后面临不断变化的成本环境时可以通过速查表模型迅速的评估项目建设的可行性及发展规模。

With the large-scale development of Guizhou's new energy industry,as of 2022,Guizhou has the largest and highest proportion of new energy installed capacity in the five southern provinces,with 5.92 million kilowatts of wind power and 14.2 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity.According to the"Guizhou Province Power Industry Report"at the end of 2022,there were approximately 115000kW of newly installed wind power and 35900kW of newly installed photovoltaic power from 2021 to 2022.However,most of them have not yet been put into operation and construction.Therefore,under the influence of various external conditions,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on whether the development speed and scale of new energy in Guizhou Province can meet expectations in the 14th Five Year Plan and the medium to long term.This article focuses on the research of wind and solar resources in Guizhou Province,and estimates the unit cost range of wind and photovoltaic project construction costs.Through financial analysis of investment,a capital IRR quick reference table model is established under the basic scale,so that when facing constantly changing cost environments in the future,the feasibility and development scale of project construction can be quickly evaluated through the quick reference table model.