三峡枢纽工程运行安全风险预警指标体系构建研究

Research of risk fore warning indicators for operation safety management of Three Gorges Project

确定风险预警指标是有效应对水利工程运行安全各类风险事件的重要基础工作之一。文章分类考虑三峡枢纽工程运行管理中面临的风险事件,梳理、识别各类风险事件的风险因子,提出各类风险事件的预警指标,并从适用性、优势和局限性3个方面对各类风险事件的预警指标进行了对比,确定风险预警的优选指标,进一步分析不同程度的风险预警优选指标可能引发的三峡枢纽工程安全风险等级及潜在后果。研究成果有利于更加全面、准确、有效地识别和应对三峡枢纽工程运行风险,对提高三峡枢纽工程运行安全保障能力具有现实意义。

The determination of risk fore warning indicators is the basis for effectively dealing with various risk events related to the operation safety of water projects.This article comprehensively considers various risk events faced in the operation management of the Three Gorges Project,sorts out the risk factors,and proposes available early-warning indicators for various risk events in each field.On this basis,the article continues to compare the early-warning indicators of various risk events in terms of applicability,advantages,and limitations,and determines the optimal indicators for fore warning and further analyzes the safety risk levels and potential consequences of the Three Gorges Project that may be triggered by different levels of risk early-warning indicators.The research results are conducive to a more comprehensive,accurate,and effective identification and response to the operational risks of the Three Gorges Project,and have practical significance in improving the operation safety guarantee capacity of the Three Gorges Project.