制造业数字化能否发挥“稳链”作用——基于价值链波动视角

Can Manufacturing Digitalization Serve as A“Stabilizing”Factor——Based on Value Chain Fluctuation Perspective

本文基于2000—2018年经济合作与发展组织(OECD)投入产出数据,测度了制造业数字化水平并构建了价值链稳定性指标,利用跨国行业面板数据研究了二者之间的关系。结果表明:制造业数字化增强了全球价值链的稳定性,能够在一定程度上发挥“稳链”作用,该结论在经过多种方式验证后依然稳健;异质性分析显示,源于国内的数字投入具有关键作用,能够促进价值链稳定性提升,而源于国外的数字投入影响不显著;制造业数字化主要增强了上游行业与非技术密集型行业价值链的稳定性。机制分析显示,制造业数字化主要通过降低价值链成本、改善价值链效率、缩短价值链长度三个渠道发挥“稳链”作用。本文提出要加快制造业数字化进程,提高制造业数字化的质量与水平,充分发挥数据要素的价值创造作用,从而增强全球价值链的稳定性。

Utilizing input-output data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)spanning from 2000 to 2018,this paper measures the level of digitalization in manufacturing industries and constructs an indicator for value chain stability,and investigates the relationship between them according to panel test.Results indicate that manufacturing digitalization enhances the stability of global value chains and can function as a“stabilizing”factor to a certain extent.This conclusion remains robust after employing various validation methods.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that domestically sourced digital inputs play a crucial role,promoting improvements in value chain stability,while foreign-sourced digital inputs exhibit insignificant effects.Manufacturing digitalization primarily strengthens the stability of value chains in upstream industries and nontechnology-intensive sectors.Mechanism analysis demonstrates that manufacturing digitalization primarily exerts its“stabilizing”influence on value chains through three channels:reducing value chain costs,enhancing value chain efficiency,and shortening value chain length.This article proposes to accelerate the process of digitalization in manufacturing,improve the quality and level of digitalization in manufacturing,fully leverage the value creation role of data elements,and thereby enhance the stability of the global value chain.