基于集对云物元模型的云南省农田碳减排能力综合评估

A Comprehensive Assessment of Carbon Emission Reduction Capacity in Yunnan Province′s Farmland Based on the Set Pair Analysis and Cloud Matter Element Model

为探究云南省各市(州)农田生态系统碳减排潜力,基于2011-2020年云南省各市(州)农田碳排放相关面板数据,从能源因素、技术因素与经济因素3个方面建立农田碳减排能力指标体系,使用博弈论组合赋权法确定指标综合权重,引入集对分析,云物元耦合模型与集对分析偏联系数算法,对云南省农田碳减排能力和发展态势进行综合评估分析。评估结果表明:(1)云南省农田碳减排能力空间布局呈现东南强、西南弱,东西中等的格局,其中产业发展格局与区域经济产值是影响农田碳减排能力的主要影响因素;(2)在农田碳减排能力发展态势分析中发现,云南省整体呈现负向发展态势。通过明确云南省农田生态系统碳排放发展现状与识别重点调控地区,因地制宜规划并制定降低农田碳排放的产业布局与耕种管理措施,为云南发展低碳农业提供参考与决策依据。

In order to explore the carbon emission reduction potential of farmland ecosystems in cities(prefectures)of Yunnan Province,based on the Panel data related to farmland carbon emissions in cities(prefectures)of Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2020,this paper estab⁃lishes an indicator system of farmland carbon emission reduction capacity from three aspects of energy factors,technical factors and econom⁃ic factors,uses the Game theory combination weighting method to determine the comprehensive weight of indicators,introduces set pair analysis,cloud matter element coupling model and set pair analysis partial coefficient algorithm.It conducts a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the carbon reduction capacity and development trend of farmland in Yunnan Province.The evaluation results indicate that:①The spatial layout of farmland carbon reduction capacity in Yunnan Province shows a pattern of strong in the southeast,weak in the southwest,and moderate in the east and west.Among them,the industrial development pattern and regional economic output value are the main influ⁃encing factors on farmland carbon reduction capacity.②In the analysis of the development trend of carbon reduction capacity in farmland,it is found that Yunnan Province as a whole shows a negative development trend.By clarifying the current development status of carbon emis⁃sions from farmland ecosystems in Yunnan Province and identifying key regulatory areas,planning and formulating industry layout and culti⁃vation management measures to reduce carbon emissions from farmland according to local conditions,this paper serves as a reference and de⁃cision-making basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Yunnan.