基于MOLA的水库群实时防洪多目标优化调度模型

Multi-objective Optimal Model for Real-time Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs Based on MOLA

水库群实时防洪优化调度作为一种重要的非工程措施,可以通过较少的投入降低洪水灾害带来的损失,起到流域防洪减灾作用。考虑了各水库自身安全和下游防洪点安全,以下游防洪控制断面最大过水流量最小、各水库最高水位最低为目标函数,建立了水库群实时防洪多目标优化调度模型;引入“滤波算子”,提出一种改进多目标利希滕贝格算法(Multi-Objective Lichtenberg Algorithm,MOLA),进行模型求解,得到水库群实时防洪调度多目标方案集,增强优化调度解在防洪调度实际应用中的可操作性;最后,提出一种基于层次聚类和Pareto前沿物理意义的综合筛选法,对Pareto前沿上的众多调度方案集进行聚集和筛选,选取有限代表解供决策者进行选择,增加防洪决策的聚焦性。研究以淮河史灌河水系为例,进行了水库群实时防洪多目标优化调度模型的应用研究,结果表明:基于改进MOLA的水库群实时防洪多目标优化调度模型计算效率高、实用性较强;采用梯度分析法定量分析了鲇鱼山水库最高水位、梅山水库最高水位、蒋家集断面最大过水流量之间的多目标互馈关系,结果表明梅山水库水位变化对蒋家集断面的组合流量影响更为显著,梅山水库可作为史灌河流域防洪风险调控的优先考虑对象。研究成果可为水库群实时防洪调度提供技术支持和决策参考。

As an important non-engineering measure,the optimal operation of reservoir flood control can reduce the loss caused by flood di⁃sasters with little investment and plays a key role in flood control and disaster reduction.In this paper,considering the safety of the reservoirs themselves and the safety of the downstream flood control section,a multi-objective optimal model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs is established with the objective function of minimizing the maximum flow of the downstream flood control section and minimizing the maximum water level of each reservoir.Based on the“filter operator”,an improved multi-objective Lichtenberg algorithm(MOLA)is proposed,which is used to solve the multi-objective model,and the real-time flood control operation schemes of the reservoirs are obtained,to enhance the practicability of operation solutions.Finally,a comprehensive screening method based on hierarchical clustering and the phys⁃ical meaning of Pareto front is proposed to screen the scheduling schemes on the Pareto front and select limited ones for the scheduler,to in⁃crease the focus of decision-making.Taking the Shiguanhe flood control system of the Huaihe River Basin as an example,this paper applies the multi-objective optimal model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs.The result shows that the proposed model based on the improved multi-objective Lichtenberg algorithm has high computational efficiency and strong applicability.The gradient analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the mutual feedback relationship between the maximum water level of Nianyushan Reservoir,the maximum wa⁃ter level of Meishan Reservoir,and the maximum flow of Jiangjiaji flood control section.The results show that the water level change of Meis⁃han Reservoir has a more significant impact on the flow of Jiangjiaji section,and the Meishan Reservoir is a priority in flood risk control of Shiguanhe River Basin.The research results can provide decision-making support for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs.