粤港澳大湾区背景下区域产业结构升级对体育产业高质量发展问题研究基于VAR模型和脉冲响应的实证检验

A Study on the Impact of Regional Industrial Structural Upgrading on the High-Quality Development of the Sports Industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area——Based on Empirical Test by VAR Model and Impulse Response

粤港澳大湾区的体育产业发展受到区域内政治、经济和文化等多个方面的制约,近期一些学者提出,区域内的产业结构变动会对其发展造成深远的影响。本项目以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、误差校正模型、脉冲响应函数及变异数分解等方法开展研究,结果表明:首先,从长远来看,粤港澳大湾区的体育产业发展与地区产业结构升级之间存在着一种长期的平衡,但体育产业对地区经济增长的积极影响并不明显。其次本研究通过0.1显著性检验,发现区域产业结构升级是体育产业高质量发展的格兰杰动因,同时体育产业高质量发展也是前者的格兰杰动因。最后,在外部因素的影响下,体育产业表现出“短期效应微弱,长期效果强烈”的倾向,而在对地区产业结构升级的影响实践中,则表现出了显著的“滞后效应”。在此基础上,针对粤港澳大湾区体育产业的未来发展,本文提出了相应的发展政策建议。

The development of the sports industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is influenced by various factors,including political,economic,and cultural aspects within the region.Recent scholarly discussions propose that changes in the regional industrial structure can have profound effects on its development.This project focuses on the Greater Bay Area and utilizes methods such as cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,error correction model,impulse response function,and variance decomposition.The findings are as follows:Firstly,in the long term,there exists a sustained balance between the development of the sports industry in the Greater Bay Area and the upgrading of the regional industrial structure.However,the positive impact of the sports industry on regional economic growth is not notably significant.Secondly,through a o.1 significance test,it is determined that the upgrading of the regional industrial structure is a Granger cause for the high-quality development of the sports industry,and vice versa.Lastly,influenced by external factors,the sports industry demonstrates a tendency of"weak short-term effects and strong long-term effects,"with significant"lag effects"in its impact on the upgrading of the regional industrial structure.Based on these findings,corresponding policy recommendations for the future development of the sports industry in the Greater Bay Area are suggested.