国外学者运用贝叶斯方法研究运动训练与竞赛的述评

Review on the Application of Bayesian Methods in Competitive Sports and Athlete Training by Foreign Scholars

由于竞技类体育比赛缺乏可重复性,比赛结果受多种因素的影响,传统零假设显著性检验无法精准实现对运动比赛的预测和对运动员状态的评估,贝叶斯方法的先验方式和结果迭代修正可克服上述困难。运用文献法、对比分析法收集国外学者运用贝叶斯方法研究竞技体育比赛和运动训练问题的文献,发现其研究主题主要集中在贝叶斯方法运用于竞技体育科研的前景分析;赛前专门性训练的相关研究;赛中相关研究;赛后相关研究;运动员选材与青少年训练研究。研究认为,与频率学派相比,贝叶斯方法在运动训练与竞赛研究中的应用优势在于:算法原理与人类运动预测行为机制近似,适合处理不确定性因素,契合训练与赛事的技术数据特征,在技术数据稀缺时具有预测优势,支持多层次建模。研究指出,重视贝叶斯方法的应用有助于填补国内外体育科研的数字鸿沟,有助于我国体育学界回应“可重复性危机”问题;有助于推动我国体育数据库建设,有助于我国体育学科内涵的挖掘。

The significance test of conventional null hypothesis is incapable in accurately predicting sports competitions and evaluating athletes'performance,as theresult of the competitive sports competition are affected by numerous factors and are unrepeatable.However,the Bayesian method,based on the prior principle and iterative revision of result data,can overcome these challenges.By employing literature review and comparative analysis methods,this study has gathered foreign scholars'works on applying the Bayesian method to address issues related to competitive sports and athlete training.The findings can be summarized as follows:1)the application of Bayesian method in prospective analysis for sports research;2)studies on specialized pre-competition training;3)studies conducted during the competition;4)studies conducted after the competition;5)studies on athlete selection and youth training.This study suggests that,compared to the Frequentist method,the utilization of Bayesian method in training and competition research offers the following advantages:1)its algorithm resembles the predictive behavior mechanism observed in human sports;2)it is capable of handling uncertain factors;3)it aligns with the technical data features of training and competition;4)it provides superior predictions when technical data is scarce;5)it supports the creation of multilayered models.The research further demonstrates that placing emphasis on the application of the Bayesian method can promote sports studies in China in the following aspects:bridging the digital divide between China and foreign sports studies,addressing the"replication crisis"within China's sports community,advancing the establishment of China's sports database,and uncovering the connotation of China's sports discipline.