全球价值链历史发展与后疫情时代的重构趋势

Historical development of global value chains and reconstruction trends in the post-epidemic era

全球价值链的兴起和迅速发展,是自冷战后近30年来,经济金融全球化最突出的表现之一。全球价值链的形成提高了全要素生产率、拉动了经济潜在增速,为全球经济协同增长立下汗马功劳,也造成分配、就业、供应链脆弱等结构性问题。新冠疫情的暴发,更是加速全球价值链重构趋势,以欧美为中心自由放任的全球化已经发生变化。未来全球价值链分布将不会单纯由效率驱动,公共安全风险、分散集中度等因素都将被充分考虑。整体将呈现由生产消费“全球一盘棋”,向以中美欧主要消费市场为中心的“三足鼎立”区域化转变,产品之间竞争或由企业之争演变为供应链之争。以制造业产品全球分工为特征的传统全球化进入停滞期,而以数字技术驱动的全链条全球化,尤其是服务业全球化,正在快速提升。具体而言,产业链、供应链重组将是未来十年影响全球经济和投资最重要的变量。

The rise and rapid development of global value chain is one of the most prominent manifestations of economic and financial globalization in the past 30 years since the Cold War.The formation of global value chains has improved total factor productivity,stimulated the potential growth rate of the economy,and contributed to the coordinated growth of the global economy,but also caused structural problems such as distribution,employment,and fragile supply chains.The outbreak of the COVID-19 has accelerated the trend of restructuring the global value chain,and the laissez-faire globalization centered on Europe and the United States has changed.In the future,the distribution of global value chains will not be driven solely by efficiency,and factors such as public safety risks and dispersion and concentration will be fully considered.The overall situation will show a“global game of chess”in production and consumption to a“three-legged”regionalization centered on the major consumer markets in China,the United States and Europe,and the competition between products may evolve from the competition between enterprises to the competition of the supply chain.Traditional globalization characterized by the global division of manufacturing products,has entered a period of stagnation,while the globalization of the whole chain driven by digital technology,especially the globalization of the service industry,is increasing rapidly.Specifically,the restructuring of industrial and supply chains will be the most important variable affecting the global economy and investment in the next decade.