建成环境视角下县域空间韧性动态变化及响应机制研究——以哈长城市群为例

Dynamic change and response mechanism of county spatial resilience under the perspective of built environment:A case of Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration

韧性是高质量发展的基石,县域作为中国最基本的行政单元,探索其空间韧性的动态演变规律,对区域空间高质量发展研究具有重要意义。以哈长城市群63个县域为研究对象,基于空间“暴露−抵御−适应”维度,运用空间自相关、VAR模型等研究方法,分析其2000—2020年空间韧性的动态变化及响应机制。研究表明:①2000—2020年,哈长城市群空间韧性指数有所上升,但县域整体空间韧性不强,始终以较低韧性为主。②哈长城市群空间上整体呈现四周高中间低的“盆地式”格局,其中,低韧性区以抱团状分布于哈长城市群中部地区,中韧性区与高韧性区呈“聚点式”位于哈长城市群东西两侧。③哈长城市群县域空间韧性不同等级韧性区域间空间差异性显著,同等级韧性区域间有明显空间集聚特征,但集聚趋势减弱。④经济基础对哈长城市群县域空间韧性的冲击最为强烈,与空间韧性间形成显著的动态响应关系;哈长城市群县域空间韧性对社会需求与环境管控的响应具有时滞性,波动起伏较小,对空间韧性起推动作用。

Resilience is the cornerstone of high-quality development.County is the most basic administrative unit in China,exploring the dynamic evolution law of its spatial resilience is of great significance to the highquality development of regional space.This paper takes 63 counties in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration as the research object,and analyzes the dynamic changes of their spatial resilience and response mechanism from 2000 to 2020 based on the dimension of spatial"exposure-resistance-adaptation",using spatial autocorrelation,VAR model and other research methods,in order to further improve the theoretical system of China's spatial resilience research and provide reference for other urban agglomeration counties in China.At the same time,this paper provides new ideas for the regional system to adapt to complex disturbances by accurately quantifying and diagnosing the dynamic changes of county spatial resilience in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration.The results show that:1)From 2000 to 2020,the resilience index of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration has increased,but the overall county spatial resilience is not strong and is always dominated by lower resilience,and the geographical distribution of spatial resilience in 63 counties is concentrated.2)The Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration spatially presents a'basin-like'pattern with a high surrounding and a low center,in which the low-resilience zone is distributed in the central part of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration in the shape of a group,and the middle-resilience zone and the high-resilience zone are located on the east and west sides of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration in the shape of a'cluster'.3)The spatial variability of different levels of resilient areas in the county spatial resilience of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration is significant,and the spatial clustering characteristics between resilient areas of the same level are significant,but the trend of clustering is weakening.4)The spatial resilience of counties in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration was initially affected by its own development.With the evolution of time,the three factors of economic foundation,social demand and environmental control have had different degrees of impact on spatial resilience.The response of the spatial resilience of counties in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration to economic foundation is the most active,forming a significant dynamic response relationship with the spatial resilience.The response of the spatial resilience of counties in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration to social demand and environmental control has a time lag and less fluctuation,which is a driving force for the improvement of the spatial resilience of counties.