基于企业尺度的江苏省工业韧性特征与影响因素分析

Characteristics and influencing factors of industrial resilience in Jiangsu Province based on enterprise scale

2019年底暴发的新冠疫情对中国经济发展产生了巨大冲击,本研究基于微观企业数据,对新冠疫情冲击下江苏省工业韧性行业特征和空间分异规律进行探究,并利用二值Logit等计量模型从产业结构、区域环境等角度分析工业韧性的影响因素。结果显示:①不同行业的工业韧性表现为技术密集型>资本密集型>劳动密集型。②技术密集型、资本密集型和整体工业韧性的空间分布均呈现出苏南>苏中>苏北的格局。③劳动密集型与技术密集型和整体工业韧性分布具有显著的空间正相关性,工业韧性的高–高集聚区主要分布在苏南地区,低–低集聚区集中在苏北地区。④工业韧性的影响因素中,专业化对劳动密集型工业韧性有负向影响,非相关多样化对劳动密集型工业韧性有促进作用;相关多样化和产业关联密度的提高有利于增强工业韧性;外贸依存度会对工业韧性产生抑制作用。

The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019 had a huge impact on China's economic development.Affected by economic globalization,industrial development will continue to face the impact of global supply chain obstruction and falling external demand.The downward pressure on the economy is huge,and achieving post-epidemic economic recovery has become an urgent and practical problem that needs to be solved.Based on micro-enterprise data,this study explores the industry characteristics and spatial differentiation of industrial resilience in Jiangsu Province under the impact of COVID-19,and using binomial logistic regression analyzes the influencing factors of industrial resilience from the perspectives of industrial structure and regional environment.There are four main findings.First,the industrial resilience of different industries showed that technology-intensive was greater than capital-intensive than labor-intensive.Second,the spatial distribution of technology-intensive,capital-intensive,and overall industrial resilience all present a pattern in which Southern Jiangsu was higher than Middle and Northern Jiangsu.Third,there was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of labor-intensive,technology-intensive and overall industrial resilience.The high-high agglomeration area of industrial resilience was mainly distributed in Southern Jiangsu,while the low-low agglomeration area was concentrated in Northern Jiangsu.Fourth,among the influencing factors of industrial resilience,specialization had a negative impact on the resilience labor-intensive industries,unrelated diversity could promote the resilience of labor-intensive industries.Related diversity and the density of related industries all had significant impacts on the industrial resilience,and the dependence on foreign trade had an inhibitory effect on industrial resilience.Finally,specific countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to improve industrial economic resilience of Jiangsu Province from the aspects of sectors differences,regional differences,industrial structure and foreign trade dependence,hoping to provide reference for high-quality economic development after the COVID-19.