新冠肺炎疫情时期中国出口韧性及出口贸易格局研究

China's export resilience and the geographical pattern of export trade during the COVID-19 pandemic

新冠肺炎疫情对全球社会和经济体系造成了巨大冲击。各国迅速陷入停工停产并采取口岸防疫等政策,使得世界贸易一度暂停,出口韧性开始受到各界关注。本文使用中国海关数据库数据,分析疫情时期中国出口贸易格局演化以及中国在世界贸易网络中的地位变化,探讨疫情背景下中国区域和产业韧性。主要结论如下:①从韧性指标和产业结构变化等来看,疫情时期中国出口贸易表现出较强的韧性,恢复力强,但抵抗力较弱,且具有产业和区域异质性,差异主要来源于产业要素禀赋、产业结构、全球供应链依赖程度、防疫政策和贸易壁垒等因素。②中国较强的出口韧性来自于目的国对防疫物资等商品的进口需求、中国快速控制疫情和较强的转产能力等带来的供给能力等方面。③中国出口目的地格局未发生较大变化,出口额分布与目的地疫情防控积极程度正相关。④疫情后中国在世界贸易网络中的地位显著提升,尤其是在防疫物资方面,形成了以中国为高通量中心节点的世界贸易网络格局。最后,本文还探讨了疫情背景下和金融危机下区域经济韧性的差异,认为疫情背景下,城市外向型经济、供给侧与需求侧双向影响以及政策因素对韧性影响更为明显。

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a huge impact on the social and economic system of the whole world.Countries quickly halted work and production and adopted epidemic prevention policies,so world trade was once suspended.In this context,export resilience began to attract attention.Using Chinese Customs database,this paper analyzes the evolution of the geographical pattern of China's export and the changes in China's position in the world trade network during the COVID-19 pandemic,and explores China's regional and industrial export resilience.The main findings are as follows:1)During the COVID-19 pandemic,China showed strong resilience while its export resistance is relatively weak,and it has industrial and regional heterogeneity.The difference mainly comes from factors such as factor endowment,industrial structure,global supply chain dependence,prevention policies,and trade barriers.2)China's strong export resilience comes from the import demand of the destination country for epidemic prevention materials,the supply capacity brought by China's rapid control of the epidemic and its strong ability to switch production.3)The pattern of China's export destination countries has not undergone major changes.It is found that the distribution of export value is positively correlated with the degree of activeness of epidemic prevention and control in the destination country;4)After the epidemic,China's position in the world trade network has increased significantly,especially in the medical supplies,and the world trade has formed a network with China as a high-throughput central node.Finally,this paper also discusses the differences in regional economic resilience under the background of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis.It is believed that under the background of the COVID-19 pandemic,the urban export-oriented economy,the two-way impact of the supply side and the demand side,and policy factors have a more obvious impact on economic resilience.