浙江海宁市强奸与猥亵两类性犯罪的时空分异及其影响因素对比

Comparing spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of rape and indecency crime in Haining City,Zhejiang Province

基于浙江省海宁市性犯罪数据,采用核密度估计、地理探测器等空间分析方法,对比分析了强奸、猥亵2类性犯罪的时空分异特征及其受人口和场所类型的影响程度。结果表明:强奸、猥亵犯罪均高发于19时至次日3时的夜间时段;强奸犯罪无明显的季节性特征,猥亵犯罪则呈现7—8月高发的单峰形态。强奸、猥亵犯罪均在商业区和住宅区集聚,前者空间集聚程度更高。人口密度、网吧、旅馆、KTV、足浴按摩店等是强奸、猥亵犯罪共同的驱动因素,而当人口与城市功能场所交互后,能更好地解释强奸、猥亵犯罪的空间分布。研究结果可为2类性犯罪的深入研究和公安机关的打防工作提供理论与实践参考。

Sexual crime is an unlawful behavior that seriously violates personal rights,human dignity,and social order.It has become a widespread social concern to prevent and control sexual crime.Based on the sexual crime records obtained from Haining Municipal Public Security Bureau,this research compares the spatialtemporal patterns of rape and indecency crimes between January 2014 and September 2021.The results show that:1)Both rape and indecency crimes tended to occur in the nighttime period from 19:00 to 3:00 the next day.Rape crimes showed no apparent seasonal variations while indecent crimes showed a monthly pattern that peaked in July and August.2)Both rape and indecent crimes were concentrated in commercial and residential areas.Rape crimes are more spatially clustered than indecent crimes.Rape crimes showed a spatial distribution pattern with a core surrounded by several hotspots,while indecency crimes were spatially distributed with a pattern of"two centers,one area,multiple hotspots".3)Common factors significantly driving spatial variations of rape and indecency crimes included population density,male population,female population,the male population aged 14-25,presence of Internet cafes,hotels,chess and card rooms,KTVs,and foot massage parlors.4)The interaction between population variables and urban functional place variables can explain the spatial distribution of both rape and indecency crimes better than either of them alone.The indecency crime can be better explained by the interactions than the rape crime,and there were more functional places that had a significant impact on the indecency crime than the rape crime.In summary,both rape and indecency crimes showed obvious spatial-temporal patterns and were influenced by both the spatial distribution of population variables and certain types of urban functional places.In places where there were more hotels,internet cafés,teahouses,chess and card rooms,bars,and KTVs,the numbers of rape and indecency crimes were also higher.These findings provide important support for the practical prevention of sexual crimes in Haining City.