基于LMDI模型的黄河中游城市群水土资源利用影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Water and Land Resources Utilization in UrbanAgglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on LMDI Model

[目的]水土资源是城市发展的重要生产要素,是探索黄河中游城市群水土资源利用过程中的关键因素,对科学促进黄河中游城市群经济快速发展具有重要意义。[方法]以黄河中游三大城市群为例,通过运用LMDI加法模型对2010—2019年黄河中游三大城市群分别构建影响水资源消耗量变化及城市建设用地数量变化的因素分解模型,计算并比较不同驱动因素的效应值。[结果](1)水资源利用效率提高和产业结构的优化能够抑制水资源消耗量的增加,而经济规模和人口规模扩大则促进其增加。(2)产业规模、经济规模及人口规模扩大对建设用地扩张存在推动作用,而城市建设用地消耗强度对建设用地扩张具有抑制作用。(3)对于水资源利用量变化,黄河中游不同城市之间产业结构优化水平存在较大差距;对于城市建设用地变化,三大城市群总效应值比较结果为关中平原城市群>中原城市群>晋中城市群。[结论]基于区域差异和时间差异角度探讨黄河中游城市群水土资源利用的影响因素,有助于丰富水土资源可持续利用的相关研究,为黄河中游城市群的可持续发展提供理论指导。

[Objective]Water and land resources are important factors of production for urban development.It is of great significance to explore the key factors in the utilization of water and soil resources in urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River to scientifically promote the rapid economic development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.[Methods]Taking the three major urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River as an example,by using LMDI addition model,the decomposition models of factors affecting the change of water resources consumption and the change of urban construction land quantity were constructed respectively for the three major urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 2010 to 2019,and the effect values of different driving factors were calculated and compared.[Results](1)Water use quota and industrial structure can inhibit the increase of water resource consumption,while economic scale and population scale will promote its increase.(2)The industrial scale,economic scale and population scale have a driving effect on the expansion of construction land,while the consumption intensity of urban construction land has a restraining effect on the expansion of construction land.(3)For the change of water resources utilization,there is a large gap in the optimization level of industrial structure among different cities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River;for the change of urban construction land,the comparison result of the total effect value of the three major urban agglomerations is Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration>Central Plains urban agglomeration>Jinzhong urban agglomeration.[Conclusion]Discussing the factors affecting the utilization of water and land resources in urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from the perspective of regional differences and time differences will help to enrich relevant research on the sustainable use of water and land resources,and provide theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.