“一带一路”中东道国金融风险对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

The Impact of Host Country Financial Risk on China's OFDI in“the Belt and Road”——Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model

东道国金融风险不仅会对本国及邻近国家金融运行构成威胁,给经济带来不良后果,同时也会显著影响外国直接投资收益,因此,东道国金融风险是中国对外直接投资重要考量。本文利用“一带一路”沿线39个国家2006-2019年金融风险状况和中国对外直接投资存量数据构建空间计量模型,实证检验东道国金融风险与中国对外直接投资的关系及其空间溢出效应。结果表明,东道国中以贷款风险、信用风险和流动性风险为主的金融风险对中国对外直接投资具有不同的影响,也会对邻近国家产生方向不同的溢出影响,同时东道国金融风险与中国对外直接投资关系还受到法治水平的异质性影响。研究结果对于提升中国对外直接投资水平具有积极的意义。

The financial risk of host country will not only pose a danger to the financial operation of its own country and neighboring countries,and bring adverse effects to its own economy,but also significantly affect the performance and income of the foreign direct investment(FDI).Therefore,the financial risk of host country is an important consideration of China's outward FDI(OFDI).This paper builds a spatial econometric model using data on the financial risk profile of 39 countries along“the Belt and Road”and stock of China's OFDI from 2006 to 2019,empirically examines the impact of host country financial risk on China's OFDI and its spatial spillovers.The results indicate that the host financial risk,including currency risk,credit risk,and liquidity risk have different effect on China's OFDI,and have varied spillover effects on neighboring countries.Besides,the impact of host financial risk on China's OFDI is significantly influenced by legal environment.The results of this study have positive significance for promoting the level of China's OFDI.