贺州市一次低温雨雪冰冻天气成因及预报效果分析

Analysis of the causes and forecasting effects of a low temperature rain and snow freezing weather in Hezhou City

利用常规观测资料和数值模式预报产品,对2022年2月19—23日贺州市低温雨雪冰冻天气成因及预报效果进行分析。结果表明,此次过程是500hPa高空槽槽后偏北气流引导地面冷空气南下,配合中低层切变线影响造成;欧洲中心数值预报模式(EC)和中国气象局全球同化预报系统(CMA-GFS)模式预报产品与实况相比均有一定的偏差,其中EC细网格模式对此次低温雨雪冰冻天气过程的温度和降雨预报效果较好。

Based on the conventional observations and numerical model forecast products,the causes and forecast effects of the low temperature,rain,snow and freezing weather during February 19—23,2022 in Hezhou City are analyzed.The results show that this process is caused by the northward airflow behind the 500 hPa upper-air trough,which guides the cold air on the ground to go southward and cooperates with the influence of the low and middle level shear lines;the forecast products of the European Center Numerical Forecasting(EC)model and the China Meteorological Administration's Global Assimilation Forecasting System(CMA-GFS) model have some deviations compared with the actual situation,among which the EC fine-grid model has better forecasting effect on the temperature and rainfall of this cold,rainy and freezing weather process.