首脑外交与中国—东盟经贸关系的发展——基于2013—2021年面板数据的政治经济学分析

Summit Diplomacy and the Development of China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Relations:An Empirical Political-Economy Analysis(2013-2021)

本文旨在研究首脑外交对中国与东盟经贸关系的影响。作为中国目前最大的贸易伙伴,东盟在中国的对外贸易和直接投资中扮演着举足轻重的角色,其重要性引发学术界广泛关注。本文基于2013—2021年的中国首脑出访数据,以及中国对东盟各国的货物出口、服务出口和对外投资数据,采用扩展的贸易引力模型和对外直接投资模型,就首脑外交对中国—东盟经贸关系的促进效应进行实证定量分析。研究结果表明,首脑出访对中国对东盟国家的货物出口存在显著的促进作用,政治关系的亲疏程度、经济总量的规模以及人均收入水平是影响中国首脑外交的货物出口创造效应的三大关键因素;在服务出口方面,首脑外交呈现出行业异质性,对中国不具备比较优势的服务贸易子行业的拉动作用有限。但是,研究发现新冠疫情对上述两类贸易创造效应都产生了抑制作用。此外,首脑外交并未对中国对东盟国家的对外直接投资产生明显积极影响,其原因在于中小规模投资和民营企业投资未受到充分的正面刺激。在后疫情时代,有必要尽快恢复线下的高层互访机制,并充分考虑首脑外交对出口和投资促进作用的差异性,进一步推动中国—东盟经贸关系的新发展。

This paper systematically examines how summit diplomacy impacts ChinaASEAN economic and trade relations,given ASEAN's significant role as China's top trading partner.Using data on Chinese leader visits and China's exports of goods,services,and foreign investments to ASEAN countries from 2013 to 2021,we employ an expanded trade gravity model and a foreign direct investment model for empirical quantitative analysis.Our findings indicate that Chinese leader visits have a stimulating effect on trade exports,with this effect influenced by political relations,economic size,and per capita income.However,the impact on service trade exports is industry-specific,with a limited effect on weaker sub-industries.The COVID-19 pandemic has restrained these trade effects.Summit diplomacy does not significantly affect the total volume of ChinaASEAN outward foreign direct investment,primarily due to limited influence on small and medium-scale investments,especially involving private enterprises.We propose that in the post-pandemic era,resuming face-to-face visits and considering the heterogeneous nature of merchandise export destinations,industry biases in service exports,and the preference for state-owned enterprises in foreign direct investment are crucial for strengthening economic and trade relations.