中国城市群现代化的时空特征及分异机理

The spatio-temporal characteristics and differentiation mechanism of urban agglomeration modernization in China

中国式现代化对城市群发展提出了新的要求,对建设具有中国特色的城市群、高质量推进新型城镇化具有重要意义。基于城市群现代化的理论内涵,构建城市群现代化评价指标体系,运用Kernel密度估计、标准差椭圆、莫兰指数以及地理探测器等方法分析其时空特征和分异机理,发现城市群现代化总体发展水平呈持续增长态势,且差距不断缩小,但各维度现代化水平差异较大,部分城市群“领头羊”效应和极化趋势明显。空间分布的“东—中—西”梯度格局逐渐减弱,重心“向西向南”迁移,东西向对城市群现代化的拉动作用弱化,同时空间集聚特征显著。城市群现代化的驱动因素具有多元化特征,对外开放水平解释力最强,而中西部城市群金融支持水平能够充分激发其他因子发挥交互作用。在此基础上,从优化城市群功能分工、发挥中西部城市群比较优势以及提升城市群对外开放水平等方面提出城市群现代化的实现路径。

Chinese-style modernization puts forward new requirements for the strategy of city clusters,which is of great significance to the construction of city clusters with Chinese characteristics and the realization of new urbanization.The interactive mechanism of“promotion”and“feedback”between Chinese-style modernization and urban agglomeration modernization is constructed,based on which the evaluation system of urban agglomeration modernization indicators is constructed.Kernel density estimation,SDE,Moran index and geographic detector are used to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics and differentiation mechanisms.It is found that:The overall development level of modernization of urban agglomerations shows a continuous growth trend and the gap is shrinking,but the modernization level of each dimension varies greatly,and the“leader”effect and polarization trend of some urban agglomerations are obvious.The gradient pattern of spatial distribution of“East,Central and West”is gradually weakening,the centre of gravity is migrating“to the west and to the south”,and the pulling effect of east-west on the modernization of urban agglomerations is weakening,meanwhile,spatial clustering features are remarkable.The driving factors of city cluster modernisation are diversified,with the level of opening up to the outside world having the highest explanatory power,and the level of financial support in central and western city clusters being able to fully stimulate other factors to play an interactive role.Based on the above conclusions,the realization path of city cluster modernization is proposed from the aspects of optimizing the functional division of labour in city clusters,giving full play to the comparative advantages of hinterland city clusters,and opening up to the outside world on the basis of city clusters at a high level.