“双碳”目标下黄河流域城市碳排放配额两阶段分配模型

Two‑stage allocation model of urban carbon emission quotas in the Yellow River Basin in the context of achieving the‘dual carbon’goals

黄河流域是中国实现碳减排目标的关键战略区域。在2030年碳减排目标要求下科学制定黄河流域城市碳排放配额方案,明晰沿黄地区碳排放限额的目标与责任,是黄河流域顺利实现“双碳”目标的关键所在。现有研究多要求减排地区缩减碳排放额,忽视了黄河流域在碳达峰目标节点前仍有碳排放新增需求,“激进式”降碳会对沿黄地区的经济安全造成隐患。该研究以2030年碳减排目标任务下的黄河流域碳排放总量为控制目标,基于既保障地区公平发展又促进全局效率优化的视角,以“基础配额+新增配额”的分配思路,构建黄河流域沿线城市碳排放配额两阶段分配模型。第一阶段:根据碳排放现状基数确定基础配额;并综合考虑地区减排能力、潜力、责任以及发展需求方面的差异特征,运用熵权-TOPSIS方法分配碳排放可增长空间,预留新增配额以保障减排地区安全运行发展。第二阶段:为确保配额方案的分配效率,构建前沿技术异质性分组的零和博弈-DDF模型,在控制减排幅度、预留新增配额的同时,获得效率优化分配方案。研究发现:(1)面对2030年减排任务目标,沿黄地区仍有碳排放新增的需求与权利;同时为避免碳排放盲目冲高峰,各地区应承担“共同而有区别”的责任。其中高能耗高排放地区承担的减排压力相对较大。(2)碳排放低效地区通过碳减排提升效率时,应把握降碳的幅度力度,确保减排方案有序执行。(3)黄河流域上中下游碳排放配额分配具有空间差异性。上游地区生态保护责任繁重,应承担较高的限额责任;中下游考虑到地区经济发展需求和能源结构短期调整困难,应分配相对较高的碳排放配额确保其平稳转型。

The Yellow River Basin is a key strategic area for China to achieve its carbon emission reduction goal.Making scientific de-cisions on the carbon emission quota scheme for cities in the Yellow River Basin under the requirements of the 2030 carbon emission reduction goal and clarifying the goals and responsibilities of carbon emission quotas in the areas along the Yellow River are crucial to the successful achievement of the dual goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.Most of the existing research schemes require the emission reduction areas to reduce carbon emissions only,ignoring the existence of new demand for carbon emis-sions in the Yellow River Basin before the due date of the goal of reaching peak carbon emissions.Furthermore,radical carbon reduc-tion could seriously damage the safe operation of the economic development along the Yellow River.This paper took the total carbon emissions of the Yellow River Basin under the 2030 carbon emission reduction goal as the control goal and constructed a two-stage allo-cation model of carbon emission quotas for cities along the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of ensuring regional equitable devel-opment and promoting global efficiency optimization.In stage one,we established the allocation idea of‘basic quota+added quota,’determined the basic quota according to the current base of carbon emissions,and took into account the differences in regional emission reduction capacity,potential,responsibility,and development demand.The Entropy Weight-TOPSIS method was used to allocate the growth space of carbon emissions,and added quotas were reserved to ensure the safe operation and development of emission reduction areas.In stage two,to ensure the allocation efficiency of the quota scheme,a zero-sum game DDF model of heterogeneous grouping of cutting-edge technologies was constructed to obtain an efficiency-optimized allocation scheme while controlling the emission reduction range and reserving new quotas.The research found that:①In the face of the goal of reducing emissions by 2030,regions along the Yel-low River still have the demand and the right to increase carbon emissions.At the same time,to avoid blindly rushing to reach peak car-bon emissions,these regions should undertake‘common but differentiated’quota responsibilities.Among them,regions with high ener-gy consumption and emissions bear relatively high pressure to reduce emissions.②When low-carbon emission regions improve effi-ciency through carbon emission reduction,they should control the extent and intensity of carbon reduction to ensure the safety of the im-plementation of emission reduction schemes.The zero-sum game DDF model of technology frontier grouping,which overcomes the dis-advantage of traditional efficiency allocation methods that could lead to extreme allocation,can not only optimize the allocation of effi-ciency,but also avoid radical large-scale adjustments of carbon quotas.③The allocation of carbon emission quotas in the upper,mid-dle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has spatial differences.The upper reaches bear heavy ecological protection responsibil-ities and should shoulder higher limit responsibilities.Considering the needs of regional economic development and the difficulties of short-term adjustment of the energy structure,the middle and lower reaches should be allocated relatively high carbon emission quotas to ensure their smooth transformation.