漓江流域径流演变归因分析

Attribution analysis of runoff evolution in Lijiang River basin

在气候变化和人类活动的背景下,进行漓江流域径流演变归因分析,有利于漓江流域生态功能的可持续利用。采用线性趋势法和累积距平法对1991—2020年流域年径流量、年降水量、年均气温、NDVI指数进行分析,结果表明各要素均呈上升趋势,分别于2015年、2012年、2017年、2010年前后发生突变。采用Pearson相关系数法分析各要素与径流演变的相关性。最后定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,进一步佐证相关分析结果。研究表明,降雨量与径流量的相关性最高,气温与径流量的相关性最弱。气候变化对漓江流域径流演变的贡献率为58.59%,人类活动对漓江流域径流演变的贡献率为41.41%。

Under the background of climate change and human activities,the attribution analysis of runoff evolution in the Lijiang River basin is conducive to the sustainable use of ecological functions of Lijiang River basin.The annual runoff,annual precipitation,average annual temperature and NDVI index of the river basin from 1991 to 2020 were analyzed by linear trend method and cumulative distance level method.The results of analysis demonstrate that each index showed an upward trend,with abrupt changes occurred around 2015,2012,2017 and 2010 respectively.The correlation between each index and runoff evolution was analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient method.Finally,the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff were quantitatively analyzed to further support the results of correlation analysis.The results of study show that the correlation between rainfall and runoff is the highest,and the correlation between air temperature and runoff is the weakest.The contribution of climate change to runoff evolution in the Lijiang River basin was 58.59%,and the contribution of human activities to runoff evolution in the Lijiang River basin was 41.41%.