试析百年变局背景下中日在东亚地区博弈新态势

Navigating Shifting China-Japan Relations in East Asia Amidst Unprecedented Change

在百年未有之大变局的背景下,中国周边环境复杂,面临重要战略难题。中日关系成为中国周边安全高度关注的重要战略问题之一。自岸田文雄上任,日本对华关系有了新的态势:频繁提及“中国台湾问题”和“东海划界问题”;挑动南海问题;出台“新安保三文件”,视中国为“前所未有的最大战略挑战”;加强日美同盟关系,牵制中国发展等。日本在东亚地区与中国博弈有诸多深层目的:通过与中国加紧博弈,以赢得国内右翼保守势力的支持;视中国为“海洋地缘政治对手”,以海洋地缘政治牵制中国成为海洋强国;以“中国台湾问题”来延缓中国崛起的速度;在强化日美同盟关系的同时,彰显日本在亚太地区的战略地位。然而,日本与中国在东亚地区的博弈也面临诸多挑战与问题。

Against the backdrop of monumental change unseen in a century,China’s surrounding environment is a critical strategic issue for its peaceful development and national rejuvenation.China’s neighborhood is complex,comprising maritime nations,landlocked countries,and those with both land and sea borders.Managing relationships with these diverse neighbors is crucial to realizing China’s centenary goals and peaceful development.Amidst this multifaceted landscape,China-Japan ties are an important facet of China’s regional strategy.Since Prime Minister Kishida took office in October 2021,Japan has taken assertive stances on“China’s Taiwan Quesion”,East China Sea delimitation,the South China Sea,and security policy,viewing China as a“strategic challenge”and tightening its US alliance to constrain China’s ascent.Japan’s regional maneuvering has several underlying aims:rallying domestic right-wing support,framing China as a maritime geopolitical opponent to prevent it from becoming a maritime power,using“China’s Taiwan Quesion”to delay China’s rise,and demonstrating its strategic role through its US ties.However,Japan also faces challenges in its regional game with China.