2023年世界船海市场评述与2024年展望

Review of World Shipping Market in 2023 and Prospect in 2024

2023年世界经济增速由2022年的3.5%放缓至3.1%,但表现出明显的韧性,全球不同经济体的经济增长分化加大。随着全球疫情管控的放开和地缘冲突的增加,大宗商品贸易受到扰动,2023年海运贸易仍预计增长2.4%。船舶行业的市场基本面稳定向好,市场主要指标保持增长,以载重吨计,新船订单量同比增长25%,完工交付量增长12%。其中油船新船订单同比增长356.6%,散货船新船订单同比增长33%,集装箱船和气体船则有所回落。中国新船订单量在主要造船国中保持领先,占全球市场份额68%。采用绿色替代燃料的双燃料船舶订单持续增长,占全球订单的34%。预计2024年船舶行业或将维持上行趋势,尤其是散货船和油船。脱碳进程的加快和人工智能技术的发展也将为船舶航运业的高质量发展带来机遇和挑战。

In 2023,the global economic growth rate slowed down from 3.5%in 2022 to 3.1%,but showing significant resilience with accelerating global economic growth differentiation among different economies.With the relaxation of global epidemic control and the increase of geopolitical conflicts,the commodity trade has been disturbed,and the seaborne trade is expected to grow by 2.4%in 2023.The market fundamentals of the shipbuilding industry are stable and positive.The key market indicators maintain growth with a year-on-year increase of 25%in new ship orders and a 12%increase in completed deliveries in terms of deadweight tonnage.Among them,new orders for oil tankers increased by 356.6%year-on-year,and new orders for bulk carriers increased by 33%year-on-year,but container ships and gas carriers fell back.Among the major shipbuilding countries,China’s shipbuilding industry stays ahead with new ship orders accounting for 68%of the global market share.The orders for dual-fuel vessels using alternative fuels continue to grow,accounting for 34%of global orders.The shipbuilding industry is expected to maintain an upward trend in 2024,especially for bulk carriers and oil tankers.The acceleration of the decarbonization process and the development of artificial intelligence technology will also bring opportunities and challenges to the high-quality development of the shipping industry.